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Our latest forecast shows the global monthly Twitter user base will shrink 3.9% next year and 5.1% in 2024. “Users will start to leave the platform next year as they grow frustrated with technical issues and the proliferation of hateful or other unsavory content,” said our principal analyst Jasmine Enberg.

Beyond the chart: We’ve cut our projections for Twitter ad revenue growth to be essentially flat. Back in March, we had expected double-digit increases in both 2023 and 2024.

But “it’s not time to write Twitter’s obituary yet,” Enberg said. While our forecast reflects the current volatile conditions at the company, there’s a possibility users will flock back—if the app can figure out its tech and content moderation.

More like this:

• Report: Social Network Ad Spending Forecast
• Article: How Gen Z is changing social media—and why marketers should care
• Article: Musk creates bedrooms at Twitter, prompting city investigation as chaos piles up

Methodology: Estimates are based on the analysis of survey and traffic data from research firms and regulatory agencies; Twitter company releases; historical trends; internet and mobile adoption trends; and country-specific demographic and socioeconomic factors.