TikTok will see 11.6% global user growth this year, according to our forecast. That’s about double Snapchat’s and Instagram’s expected growth. The ByteDance-owned app will boast more than 900 million monthly users this year—if it manages to stay in the US, its biggest country.

Most US adults will click through a digital ad that’s relevant to their interests, according to a CivicScience survey. That’s an improvement from March 2021, when 57% of US adults said they were not likely to click through these ads. As of January 2023, that figure dropped to 44%.

Fifty-six percent of marketers in North America said that in-depth analytics drives their data clean room strategies, according to the CMO Council. Other leading drivers included the ability to measure campaign results (54%) and ease of data integration (52%).

As the possibility of a TikTok ban grows in the US, users are looking for other platforms to satisfy their short-video needs. In a Cowen survey, 26% of adult US users said they’d switch to Instagram Reels, and 21% said they’d head to YouTube Shorts. Meanwhile, 37% had no plans to use another short-video app.

The number of Gen Z mobile banking users will reach 33.7 million in the US this year and continue to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.4% through 2026, per our forecast.

Time spent with TikTok will reach 55.8 minutes per day among US adult users this year, per our latest forecast, about 9 minutes more than expected in last year’s update. In 2024, time spent will increase to 58.4 minutes, up 4.8% year over year. We also expect TikTok’s US user base to cross the 100 million mark this year.

YouTube is the preferred podcast platform among US listeners of this medium, according to Morning Consult. Spotify takes second place, followed by Apple Podcasts and Pandora.

By 2026, US spending on ecommerce channel ads—a large subset of retail media—will be more than triple its 2020 level, per our forecast. Within the ecommerce channel, both search and display advertising are growing rapidly.

5G mobile service revenues will reach $310 billion globally this year, according to Juniper Research. In 2027, that figure will rise more than twofold to $625 billion, as the world upgrades from 3G and 4G.

Amid privacy changes and macroeconomic headwinds, social media will be the channel hurt most by the digital advertising downturn. For 2023, we have reduced our US social network ad spending forecast by $16.21 billion.

The sports rights spending of subscription OTT services will increase by more than $3 billion this year to reach $8.5 billion worldwide, according to Ampere Analysis. Their monthly viewership will also grow, per our forecast, surpassing 2 billion for the first time in 2023.

Temu’s number of unique US visitors increased by nearly nine times between September and December 2022, according to Comscore Media Metrix Multi-Platform. That made Temu more visited than Chinese goods sellers Shein and Wish by the end of last year, before it rose to greater prominence with its Super Bowl ad campaign.

Worldwide, retail sales growth has rebounded after taking a dive in 2020, per our forecast. Though growth rates won’t return to their pre-pandemic levels, they will stay steady through 2026. Meanwhile, ecommerce sales growth has decelerated after a few banner years, falling to single digits from 2022 through the end of our forecast period.

Gen Z adults are more likely to pay attention to social media advertising than US adults overall, according to CivicScience. By comparison, the general adult population tends to notice other online ads and TV commercials.

In the US, TikTok will capture the attention of its adult users for an average of 55.8 minutes a day, with YouTube close behind at 47.5 minutes, according to our forecast. At the other end of the spectrum, Facebook’s adult users will spend just over a half an hour per day on the platform, while those of Reddit will spend only 23.6 minutes with it.

Across generations, the majority of US adults are concerned about the privacy of their health data within smartphone apps, according to Morning Consult. While the percentage of those with concerns has declined for all except Gen Z since 2021, older adults are still more likely to have this worry.

US social ad spend growth will near 9% this year and return to double digits in 2024, per our forecast. Last year’s 3.6% increase reflects a normalization after 2021’s rapid growth, as well as targeting challenges resulting from Apple’s AppTrackingTransparency framework.

Forty-four percent of US adults plan to spend their normal amount on health and beauty products this year, according to a MetaPack survey. More than two-thirds said they’re not changing their spending on apparel (39%) or on DIY and gardening (34%).

More than half of US adults prefer human-generated content across a broad range of media, according to an Ipsos survey. For news and photojournalism, for example, about 70% want to see human-made content. But for marketing websites and movies, US adults are slightly more open to AI-generated content.

For the first time, US adults will spend more time per day with digital video than with TV this year, according to our forecast, as the cord-cutting revolution takes hold. Total time spent with digital video and TV will remain just over 6 hours per day, the same amount it’s been since 2020.