The trend: Casual dining chains that lean into value are luring cost-conscious consumers, even as broader economic uncertainty tempers discretionary spending. Our take: Consumers haven’t stopped dining out, but they’ve become more selective. They’re increasingly looking for value experiences that offer more for their money. That shift is pressuring some parts of the industry. Quick-service chains like McDonald’s and fine dining brands like Darden’s Ruth’s Chris and The Capital Grille are feeling the squeeze. But it’s providing an opportunity for casual dining chains that offer affordable indulgences. Their combination of sit-down service and budget-friendly pricing is hitting the mark.

The news: Global ad spend growth is slowing but staying positive, with WARC projecting a 6.2% rise to $1.16 trillion in 2025 and MAGNA forecasting a 4.9% climb to $979 billion. Retail media is outpacing linear TV for the first time, and Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon continue to control the majority of digital revenues. Measurable channels like short-form video, retail media, and ad-supported VOD are gaining ground. Our take: Amid economic pressures and trade concerns, advertisers are prioritizing performance, shifting budgets geographically and platform-wise. With elections, AI, and major global events on the horizon, platforms that prove outcomes—not impressions—will shape the next era.

The reality: Tariff-driven grocery price hikes have been relatively modest so far this year. Food and beverage prices rose 2.9% YoY through mid-May, up from 1.7% a year earlier, per Circana. While tariffs haven’t caused a major inflation spike, supply-side shocks—like drought, avian flu, and extreme weather—have pushed up prices on staples such as coffee, eggs, and chocolate. Our take: Tariffs haven’t led to major price hikes yet, but that’s likely to change soon as duties push up costs on goods like seafood, alcohol, and produce. And even before those increases take effect, shoppers are becoming more cautious, more price-sensitive, and quicker to trade down or skip nonessentials altogether.

The news: WPP Media has lowered its global ad spend forecast for 2025 by 1.7%, reaching 6% compared with the 7.7% projected in December. The downgrade is attributed to ongoing trade wars resulting from President Trump’s current tariff policies, with WPP Media president Kate Scott-Dawkins citing “uncertainty.” Our take: Despite global uncertainty, advertisers who remain flexible with data-informed pivots, prioritize performance marketing, and plan for uncertainty will come out on top.

Sixty percent of current and prospective homeowners are unsure whether it’s a good time to buy a home—the highest uncertainty in three years, per Bank of America’s report. Meanwhile, 75% of prospective buyers are waiting for mortgage rates to drop, up from 62% in 2023. Younger generations, especially Gen Z and millennials, are delaying homeownership, with ownership rates flatlining. Stagnant rental prices and economic uncertainty add to the hesitation. Lenders must modernize offerings, streamline processes, and explore alternative financing like crypto and peer-to-peer loans to convert hesitant buyers when the market improves.

The insight: Discounters are experiencing a resurgence as concerns about rising prices and economic stability spur shoppers of all income levels to seek out bargain retailers. Our take: The uncertain environment in many ways benefits Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Five Below, whose value initiatives are enabling them to win spending from cautious consumers. But—as with the broader retail industry—tariffs are a costly challenge for all three, particularly as they try to minimize price hikes and maintain their value advantage.

Dollar General benefits from “trade-in” behavior among wealthier shoppers: The retailer boosted its outlook as discretionary spending from higher-income consumers offset lower-income caution.

Travel demand is becoming harder to predict: Consumers are waiting until the last moment to make plans as uncertainty complicates spending decisions.

Consumers’ belt tightening was good news for Campbell’s in FYQ3: The consumer packaged goods company benefited from a surge in home cooking, now at its highest rate since the pandemic.

Best Buy will stick to its tariff playbook despite court rulings: The retailer is doing its best to ignore the noise and focus on how best to serve its customers.

What retailers reaffirming 2025 guidance have in common: Dick’s, Walmart, and Home Depot are cutting supplier costs, diversifying supply chains, and raising prices strategically amid ongoing uncertainty.

Ad agency consolidation is shaking employee confidence: Many fear layoffs, unclear futures, and eroding culture as leadership focuses on cost-cutting.

The summer travel season will look very different this year: More trips are planned, but vacations will be shorter and cheaper.

Tariff uncertainty puts retailers in a tough spot: Merchants are rushing to import goods, risking excess inventory, shortages, or mismatches with consumer preferences.

Restaurant visits are declining as consumers worry about their finances: Uncertainty is pushing customers to be more discerning about where they spend their food dollars.

Uncertainty reigns under Trump’s ever-changing tariff strategy: The threat of a 50% tariff on the EU could drive up the cost of small indulgences like gorgonzola and pricey machinery used in manufacturing.

Clucking strong in a soft market: Chicken-focused restaurants are drawing more visits than other fast-casual chains with a winning formula of value, variety, and innovation.

US social ad spend will grow YoY in 2025, even as platforms grapple with tariff-related budget cuts from industries that spend heavily on social channels, like CPG and retail.

Most consumers accept ads in streaming: An Attest study highlighted the growing preference for ad-supported options as streaming proves sustainable.

54% of global marketers are slashing ad spend, says Nielsen: The need for adaptability, rather than bigger budgets, is more prominent than ever.