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Unpredictability defines Trump administration’s trade playbook

The situation: President Trump’s unpredictable trade policies are causing challenges for consumers and businesses.

  • Consider his recent threat—later delayed—to impose a 50% tariff on EU imports and a 25% tariff on Apple for iPhones made outside the US. If implemented, the measures would cause prices of everyday imported staples like Irish butter, Belgian chocolate, French brie, and Italian olive oil to soar—making a trip to the grocery store or a night out more expensive.
  • to impose a 50% tariff on EU imports and a 25% tariff on Apple for iPhones made outside the US. If implemented, the measures would cause prices of everyday imported staples like Irish butter, Belgian chocolate, French brie, and Italian olive oil to soar—making a trip to the grocery store or a night out more expensive.
  • At the same time, it would drive up the cost of some of the critical heavy machinery needed for companies to reshore manufacturing in the US.

Why it matters: With trade policies shifting by the day, medium-term planning is difficult and long-term strategy is nearly impossible.

  • That uncertainty is weighing on consumer sentiment, which is down almost 30% since January 2025, per the University of Michigan. And it is causing consumers to pull back. For example, a consumer poll conducted in late March found travelers planned to spend 21% more on summer trips; just two weeks later, that figure dropped to 13%—a clear sign that tariffs are being perceived as a hit to household budgets.
  • It’s also keeping retailers and other companies from investing in US-based manufacturing, and driving many to pull their financial guidance.

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