Rising costs and shaky demand force the CPGs to rethink pricing, innovation, and where to find growth.

Ad agencies face AI disruption, consolidation, in-housing, and economic pressure. Legacy models are cracking as clients automate more work, forcing agencies to rethink their business strategies—or risk falling behind.

Amazon is pushing suppliers to cut prices amid lower China duties and questions over tariffs’ legality

Apple Card, tech spending, and mobile banking are highlights.

Brands try to bolster value and innovate to win cost-conscious customers.

November retail sales beat expectations in the US, but consumers in the UK, EU, and China are displaying signs of caution.

Delta leans into premium demand as broader travel industry shows signs of strain.

"Retailers are reinventing the ways that they connect with their customers in real life," said our analyst Blake Droesch during a recent “Behind the Numbers” episode. "The D2C revolution that we saw play out online has now really reached its limitations, giving way to a disconnection between brands and their customers."

FIs need to pull consumers through a wave of uncertainty.

Uniqlo delivered double-digit growth at the end of 2025, outpacing Primark, as shoppers opted for quality over rock-bottom prices.

As manufacturing costs climb, automakers must balance luxury demand with the need for more affordable options to stay competitive.

Consumer spending held up in October, despite broader signs of growing strain on lower- and middle-income consumers. Retail sales rose 3.5% YoY, according to the US Commerce Department. Control group sales—which exclude food services, autos, building materials stores, and gas stations, and are used to calculate GDP—increased 0.8% MoM, the biggest rise in four months. However, the US economy appears increasingly fragile. While spending is growing at a healthy pace for now—largely due to higher-income households with a greater capacity to absorb higher prices and a stronger appetite for discretionary purchases—a softening labor market and tariff-driven inflation could push consumers to pull back next year.

Costco is gaining market share across nearly all categories it operates in, as shoppers respond to its combination of value, quality, and newness, CFO Gary Millerchip said on the retailer’s most recent earnings call. Costco is one of many retailers benefiting from both consumers’ search for value and the K-shaped economy. Like Walmart and Dollar General, the company is well positioned to outperform this holiday season as shoppers cut gift budgets and prioritize necessities. Costco’s results point to a retail environment in which share gains are driven by traffic, value, and loyalty, one that does not bode well for chains that lack pricing credibility or differentiation.

Q3 consumer spending looked steady, but the gains were fueled mainly by higher-income shoppers, revealing a split landscape that bolstered value and essentials retailers while squeezing brands dependent on discretionary and big-ticket projects.

2026 is set to be another strong year for the global travel industry. A record 5.2 billion people are expected to travel by air, up 4.4% YoY, according to the IATA. While global demand remains robust, the US industry is contending with several headwinds, including weakening interest in domestic travel—from both US consumers as well as international visitors—which is pressuring budget carriers and pushing prices upward as airlines target premium customers. With the softening jobs market and growing uncertainty contributing to consumers’ “bad vibes” about the economy and their personal finances, US demand for travel is likely to continue to be uneven in 2026.

US ad spend growth will grow a total of 11% in 2025, excluding political spending, per an updated Madison & Wall forecast cited by Mediapost. The figure is well above Madison & Wall’s previous estimate of 3.6% growth and follows 13% YoY growth in Q3. Even as total media ad spending continues to grow, growth doesn’t entirely negate the overall climate of uncertainty that will undoubtedly affect the ad industry in the year ahead. Slowing growth expected from Madison & Wall in 2026 and ongoing economic headwinds indicate that advertisers are still operating in an era of caution.

Softening consumer confidence hasn’t dented beauty demand, according to executives from Ulta Beauty and Estée Lauder. Engagement with the category “remained healthy in Q3,” Ulta CEO Kecia Steelman said, noting that sales rose across both mass and prestige products. The US consumer is “resilient,” Estée Lauder CEO Stephane de la Faverie said, though he acknowledged signs of price sensitivity. The strength isn’t isolated to Estée Lauder and Ulta: Beauty sales accelerated in Q3, according to Circana, showing that shoppers are prioritizing self-care amid uncertainty. However, while shoppers are keen to buy, they are managing their budgets and focusing on value.

Dollar and discount retailers are gaining share as low prices draw more middle- and high-income shoppers. Dollar Tree added 3 million households to its customer count in Q3, most earning over $100,000, while Dollar General saw higher-income customer growth and broader market-share gains. Five Below’s strong Q3 comps reflected new shoppers and bigger baskets. All three raised full-year outlooks. But much of their growth stems from higher prices, not traffic, and core low-income shoppers remain strained. To sustain momentum, retailers must improve store experience and appearance, ensure pricing accuracy, and invest in convenience through delivery partnerships.

Marketers are feeling less optimistic about business conditions for 2026 than they were a year ago, per a new WARC report. 54% of marketers believe that conditions will improve next year, down from 65% who felt this way about 2025. WARC’s forecast indicates that economic instability will continue causing marketers to adopt more conservative budgeting strategies and sharpen their focus on measurable, performance-driven advertising.

US employers have announced over 1.1 million job cuts this year, the most since 2020 and a 54% increase YoY, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The report, alongside similarly soft numbers from ADP, is unlikely to stem the decline in US consumer confidence. While the end of the government shutdown eased some anxieties, households remain concerned about the weakening labor market and rising inflation. These concerns could weigh on holiday spending by pushing shoppers to reduce their budgets and prioritize essentials.