The outlook: 2026 is set to be another strong year for the global travel industry.

• 5.2 billion people are expected to travel by air, up 4.4% from this year’s record-breaking passenger counts, according to the International Air Transport Association’s latest report.
• The number of international visitors traveling to the US is expected to return to growth, largely due to the FIFA World Cup. The US Travel Association expects inbound international visits to increase 3.7% in 2026, following an estimated 6.3% drop this year.
• Delta CEO Ed Bastian expects the airline to “have a great year” as its core consumer base, households with incomes of at least $100,000, continues to spend freely on premium and international travel.

The big picture: While global demand remains robust, US travel trends show mixed signals. The US industry is contending with several headwinds, including weakening demand for domestic travel—from both US consumers as well as international visitors—which is pressuring budget carriers and pushing prices upward as carriers focus on more profitable routes.

Consumers’ caution is evident in their holiday travel plans.

• Both the number of average planned trips and expected travel spending declined this year, per Deloitte, mainly due to growing pessimism about household finances. A Bankrate report also noted that holiday travel intent fell in 2025 from 2024 across US age groups.
• Budgets are down by nearly 20% as households opt for cost-saving strategies such as driving over flying, staying with family and friends, and reducing the length of their stays.
• Even more affluent consumers are rethinking travel spending. Households making at least $100,000 annually reported the biggest drop in the number of planned trips across income groups and expressed a strong inclination for shorter trips throughout the holiday travel season.

Our take: With the softening jobs market and growing uncertainty contributing to consumers’ “bad vibes” about the state of the economy and their personal finances, US demand for travel is likely to continue to be uneven in 2026.

• On the one hand, the World Cup and a weaker dollar could make the US a more attractive destination for both foreign and domestic visitors, which would give the hospitality industry and related sectors, like retail and restaurants, a major boost.
• On the other hand, declining consumer confidence could push US consumers—particularly low- and middle-income households—to pull back sharply on travel spending. Additionally, many of the factors that pushed international travelers to steer clear of the US this year—like tariffs, stricter immigration policies, and general anti-US sentiment—are likely to remain in play in 2026.