Source: EMARKETER Forecast, October 2026 - June 2026
Note: excludes travel and event tickets, payments such as bill pay, taxes, or money transfers, restaurant sales, food services and drinking place sales, gambling and other vice goods sales
Additional Note: Home improvement & garden includes building materials, flooring, paint, hardware, fixtures, lighting, and lawn and gardening equipment; it excludes items related to home decor (e.g., furniture, area rugs, drapery). EMARKETER benchmarks its US total retail sales figures against US Department of Commerce data from 2018 onward. The last full year measured was 2025.
Methodology: Estimates are based on the analysis of data from other research firms and government agencies, historical trends, reported and estimated revenues of major online retailers, consumer online buying trends, and macro-level economic conditions.