Consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands spend billions on promotions each year. Yet even as promotions have evolved, measurement hasn’t kept pace.

Traditional promotion measurement often focuses on how many units sold, when they sold, and which products were promoted. It can miss how promotions influence shopper behavior: attracting new buyers, prompting shoppers to switch brands, and driving incremental sales beyond the promoted product.

That limited view can lead marketers to treat promotions primarily as a short-term tactic for hitting sales targets or clearing inventory rather than a way to drive broader business growth.

New research from Circana examines the broader impact of CPG promotions and what traditional measurement may be missing.

What happens when you measure promotions like media

Circana, a global leader in retail and media measurement, analyzed 48 campaigns across multiple CPG categories executed on the Ibotta Performance Network. The study used a causal measurement approach similar to those used to evaluate media effectiveness.

By comparing outcomes between matched buyer groups, the analysis measured incremental impact, helping distinguish sales driven by promotions from those that would have occurred anyway.

Across the 48 campaigns, Circana identified measurable effects on incremental sales and consumer behavior:

The findings also reveal a broader impact beyond the featured product. On average, non-promoted items within the same brand portfolio saw a 10.9% sales lift, alongside a 10.6% increase in household penetration across the broader portfolio. This suggests the impact of a promotion can extend beyond the featured SKU to contribute to growth across a brand’s portfolio.

How promotions drive growth across three key shopper segments

Whether a promotion drives sales is only half the question. The other half is which buyers drove it. Circana’s analysis separated three segments, each pointing to a different kind of growth.

• Competitive brand buyers: Campaigns delivered an average incremental sales lift of 32.9% among shoppers who had purchased a competing brand in the previous 52 weeks. This suggests promotions can influence brand choice among consumers already purchasing competing products.
• New-to-category buyers: Campaigns generated an average incremental sales lift of 26.9% among shoppers who hadn’t purchased the category in the previous 52 weeks. This suggests promotions can also attract shoppers who are new to the category.
• Existing brand buyers: Brands saw the strongest return among this group: an average incremental return on ad spend of $5.05. This suggests promotions can help encourage additional purchases among existing customers, not just attract new buyers.

From measurement to growth

When marketers can isolate incremental impact, they can better understand the role promotions play in driving growth. That means looking beyond redemptions and featured-SKU sales to understand which shoppers respond, how sales change, and whether the impact extends across the brand portfolio.

For CPG marketers, the opportunity is to evaluate promotions not simply as a short-term sales tactic, but as an investment whose incremental contribution to growth can be measured.

Promotions deserve to be evaluated for their full incremental impact—not just the sales attached to a featured offer.

Explore the full Circana meta-study for more findings on the incremental impact of CPG promotions.