The most expensive political ad cycle in US history ended last week. Campaign buys stopped Wednesday morning, pulling billions in demand out of the market just as holiday budgets hit their peak. For CMOs, the next three weeks bring cheaper reach in some channels and no relief at all in others.

With a week to go, AdImpact projected 2025–26 political spending and reservations at a record $11.21 billion, edging past the entire 2024 presidential cycle. Texas set the record for the costliest nonpresidential race at more than $560 million, and Ohio's Senate contest also passed $500 million.

The money was back-loaded. Basis Technologies data cited by Perion shows 48% of digital political budgets land in the final 30 days, the same window brands use to build toward Black Friday on November 27.

The election also pulled attention away from buying, not just inventory. Alex Kovalov, co-founder and chief growth officer of OMNIsquad, said B2B e-commerce brands he manages in the construction space saw performance fall about 40% on average the week before the vote, a pattern he sees every cycle. "It seems that these businesses slow down their operations waiting for the results and shifts in policy and political agenda," he said. Consumer products held up, carried by Halloween and holiday demand.

Where relief will show up, and where it won't

History says the post-election discount is real but uneven. In 2024’s election cycle, political programmatic CPMs ran more than 40% above the cycle average in October and November, and video CPMs nearly doubled in November, per Basis. That premium unwinds fastest in TV, CTV, and battleground markets.

Texas is already showing it. Ryder Meehan, co-founder of TaxDrop, which targets homeowners in major Texas cities, said the company's Meta cost per click fell more than 15% on midterm elections week, "back to normal after the political ads competition spike over the previous month." Its digital TV and YouTube costs are down about 10%, and click-through rates have improved slightly.

Nationally, social is less forgiving. Meta's average CPM rose in November after both the 2022 and 2024 elections, according to Gupta Media. This year starts higher: US Facebook CPMs averaged $21.45 in October, about 35% above last year, by one tracker's count.

The second squeeze

The relief will be brief. Perion notes CPMs have historically climbed another 16% to 44% between November 11 and December 2, as brand and retail spend floods back. Meehan sees holiday spend ticking up in mid-November, "seemingly a few days earlier each year." CTV carries the biggest swing: AdImpact projected $2.7 billion in political CTV spending, and all that inventory is now open to holiday advertisers.

What CMOs should do now:

• Pull a flexible budget forward. The cheapest reach of the quarter is likely available this week, not at Cyber Week.
• Start with battleground markets. Texas, Ohio, and Michigan saw the steepest political pricing and are seeing the sharpest drop.
• Change the tone. "Audiences have spent months being shouted at, so we're going the other way," said Theron Tingstad, CEO of Arbor Growth. “That means warmer creative, humor where it fits, and no countdown-clock urgency.”

The 2027 question

The bigger adjustment is the baseline. The IAB expects 2026 US ad spending to grow 12.3%, a pace lifted by political money and tentpole events that won’t repeat in 2027. Tingstad sees upside in that off-year: softer inventory, especially in video, makes it cheaper to build reach. “Brands that build mental availability in a quiet year enter 2028, a presidential cycle, will be in a much stronger position,” he said.

Election Day didn't ease the pressure on media budgets. Instead, It reshuffled it. Brands that considered November 4 as a launch date have a good head start; the rest have days, not weeks, to catch up.

This was originally featured in the EMARKETER Daily newsletter. For more marketing insights, statistics, and trends, subscribe here.