In 2026, economic uncertainty is quietly reshaping consumer payment behavior, driving shifts across cards, cash, BNPL, and emerging alternatives as households adapt how they manage spending and access liquidity.

The coffee chain is reintroducing tiers to incentivize deeper loyalty.

This FAQ addresses what commerce media is, how it differs from retail media, and where growth opportunities exist for advertisers in 2026.

Dunkin’, Starbucks, and Walmart are among those looking to capitalize on “better for you” food trends.

In a special Thanksgiving-themed episode of “Behind the Numbers,” we ranked the retail and brand initiatives we’re thankful for this season, from viral merchandise to purpose-driven campaigns. "We're looking at those strategies, launches, and collabs that we're genuinely grateful for, the moves that made us smile, surprised us, or gave us hope for where retail is headed," said our analyst Suzy Davidkhanian.

Starbucks unveiled a new holiday drink available exclusively at Target stores. The release of the limited-edition Frozen Peppermint Hot Chocolate marks the first time the two companies have collaborated on a holiday drink. While the holiday exclusive won’t address their deeper challenges, it’s the right note to hit at a time when shoppers need extra motivation to visit a Starbucks or Target store.

Starbucks Workers United is planning an open-ended strike in more than 25 cities on November 13, aligning with Red Cup Day, one of the company’s busiest annual events. The move comes after months of stalled contract talks and the union’s rejection of Starbucks’ economic proposal earlier this year. With key issues like pay, hours, and staffing unresolved, the strike threatens to disrupt Starbucks’ lucrative holiday season, potentially affecting sales of gift cards, merchandise, and seasonal drinks amid ongoing pressure on consumer spending.

More companies are looking to shed underperforming assets or overhaul their business structures to strengthen their businesses in an uncertain environment. Yum, Starbucks, and AB Foods are among those either looking to sell or restructure to better position themselves for growth. With the global economy on increasingly shaky footing due to geopolitical tensions and trade disputes, it’s no surprise that companies are moving to mitigate risk either by slimming down or seeking partners to help extract greater strategic value from their assets.

Starbucks’ premium positioning is hampering its recovery as price-sensitive consumers seek cheaper ways to fuel their caffeine habits. US same-store sales were flat in the quarter ended September 28, with a 1% decline in comparable transactions offset by a 1% increase in average ticket. Starbucks’ ongoing weakness can be attributed at least in part to the challenging economic environment, which is driving consumers to cut back on consuming food and drinks outside the home. But its competitors’ ability to drive sales even with the same headwinds suggest that Starbucks’ hold on customer loyalty is slipping.

Starbucks is piloting a new rewards initiative called Coffee Loop, which offers customers a free drink after every nine purchases, according to Modern Retail. The invite-only test, hosted on a separate website, aims to reengage customers amid six consecutive quarters of declining US sales. CEO Brian Niccol has criticized the current rewards model as too generic, signaling a push toward simpler, more targeted incentives. While Coffee Loop mirrors the punch-card approach used by smaller cafés, it’s just one part of Starbucks’ broader effort to reignite growth through faster service, refreshed menus, and stronger store experiences.

Starbucks and Target tapped into the buzz around the release of Taylor Swift’s latest album, “The Life of a Showgirl,” to help fuel their turnaround. The stakes are high for both companies as they struggle to get customers excited about their offerings. At the same time, the question for both Starbucks and Target is whether they can turn the short-term bump into lasting growth.

Starbucks said it would lay off about 900 workers and close 1% of its US and Canada stores—including its flagship Seattle Roastery—as part of a $1 billion restructuring plan. Turning Starbucks around was always going to take time, due to its sheer size as well as the magnitude of its problems. Niccol’s strategy banks on restoring the chain’s reputation for stellar customer service—an advantage that could help it stand out in a space increasingly oriented toward convenience. But the company remains vulnerable to upstarts like 7 Brew and Dutch Bros that are more tuned into beverage trends.

Restaurants face shifting consumer behavior, tighter household budgets, and rapid advances in technology. This report provides the latest data on restaurant traffic, delivery, mobile engagement, and technology adoption.

Quick-service chains like Starbucks, Taco Bell, and Potbelly are leaning into secret menus as a low-risk, high-reward strategy to spark buzz, drive app engagement, and crowdsource product innovation. “Secret” is one of the most powerful words in the marketing playbook—it signals exclusivity, discovery, and insider access. For QSRs, secret menus turn that intrigue into action, gamifying loyalty, testing new flavors, and tapping into cultural trends—all without disrupting operations. By inviting fans to co-create, brands get viral traction and fresh product ideas, often using ingredients already in stock. It’s a low-lift, scalable strategy to boost visits and stay relevant in a crowded, fast-moving category.

Starbucks will rely on kiosks to shorten wait times at high-traffic locations like airports and hospitals, per a Bloomberg report. For all Starbucks’ talk about building the community coffeehouse, it recognizes that service, speed, and reliability are integral to keeping customers engaged with the brand. While there are other pillars the company needs to execute to complete its turnaround, being able to deliver efficient service when it’s needed most will bolster its reputation for reliability and encourage more frequent visits.

The situation: Despite logging a sixth consecutive quarter of negative comps in FY Q3, CEO Brian Niccol—who famously steered Chipotle out of its food‑safety crisis—said Starbucks’ turnaround is running ahead of schedule. Our take: While it’s encouraging to see Starbucks take some small steps in a positive direction, the road is still steep. Consumers remain price‑sensitive, agile rivals in the US and China are taking multiple paths to steal share (both value‑led and trend‑driven), and commodity costs are rising. To break out of its sales slump, Starbucks must execute on four fronts: Make service faster and better. The chain needs to speed up service without sacrificing the high-touch hospitality that Niccol is seeking. Find ways to differentiate. It’s easy to roll out new offerings, but it's hard to develop unique beverages that consumers will clamor for rather than recoil at (who can forget Starbucks’ Oleato line of olive oil-infused drinks?). Lean on technology. Refreshing Starbucks’ Rewards program and revamping its app are proven tools to drive occasional customers back into its stores. Stabilize China. Price cuts may lift traffic, but Starbucks needs to balance volume gains against margin erosion and fend off lower‑priced competitors such as Luckin. Nailing these pillars—speed, product innovation, tech‑powered engagement, and a calibrated China play—will determine whether early green shoots turn into sustained growth.

Starbucks is taking a different approach to its much-hyped Pumpkin Spice Latte this year. Rather than pulling the launch forward, as it has done for the past several years, the drink will make its debut on August 26—four days later than in 2024, and the PSL’s latest launch date since 2022. Delaying the launch slightly could build excitement over Starbucks’ fall menu, and encourage customers to visit more often once the PSL hits stores. The move might also lift sales for Starbucks’ grocery assortment—especially given the current popularity of at-home coffee brewing—which could in turn help offset the company’s in-store softness. Still, the enduring popularity of the PSL alone won’t be enough to lift Starbucks out of its slump.

The strategy: Starbucks is testing better-for-you products in a bid to win over more health-conscious consumers, per Bloomberg. Our take: Starbucks is making some necessary changes—but there’s still plenty of work to do. Consumers want brands that meet them where they are, and that means prioritizing ingredient transparency and wellness without sacrificing flavor or convenience. For Starbucks, that could mean cutting back on sugar in key drinks, expanding nutritional add-ins, and offering more customizable options. If executed well, this strategy could help Starbucks reassert its leadership in the premium coffee space.

Our analysts took a look at the first half of this eventful year and provided their own very specific—albeit unlikely—predictions at what could happen in the second half of the year and beyond.

On today’s podcast episode, we discuss our ‘very specific, but highly unlikely’ predictions for 2025. What would happen to the social media world if OpenAI bought Snap, what if Starbucks launched a Stablecoin, and why some companies might still want to buy linear networks. Join Senior Director of Podcasts and host Marcus Johnson, Vice Presidents of Content Suzy Davidkhanian and Paul Verna, and Principal Analyst Yory Wurmser. Listen everywhere and watch on YouTube and Spotify.