To capture a share of limited holiday gains, retailers and brands must zero in on pockets of opportunity across mobile commerce, social platforms, and consumer adoption of AI for shopping.

“Returns are in, brands are sharing how the holidays really performed on investor calls, and before we know it, we're going to start planning for the next cycle,” said our analyst Suzy Davidkhanian on a recent episode of “Reimagining Retail.” As retailers wrap up their analysis of the 2025 holiday season and begin planning for 2026, here’s how consumer behaviors are evolving across channels and what this means for future holiday strategies.

This FAQ covers how consumers shop on social platforms and what it means for brands.

This FAQ discusses how the holiday marketing season is evolving into a longer, leaner, and more competitive period, driven by economic headwinds, earlier shopping behavior, and the growing importance of retail media. It outlines why marketers must plan earlier, prioritize measurable and omnichannel strategies, and avoid overconcentrating spend around the Cyber Five to capture demand across an extended season.

This year’s Cyber Five brought in record sales, but it’s still unclear how consumer spending will unfold through the rest of the holiday season and into the new year. Shoppers are moving in different directions based on their financial stability, and many are starting their holiday buying weeks earlier. Coming out of the gate with strong value and consistent messaging is paying off early, but brands must keep that energy going as the season stretches and shifts.

Reports of Gen Z’s sluggish holiday spending may be exaggerated. Brands like Edikted, Kendra Scott, and Bath & Body Works—favorites of the cohort—saw heavier foot traffic during Black Friday, per Bloomberg. The cohort will account for a greater share of Cyber Five spending this year—18%—while all other generations will see their share decline, per Deloitte. With the pressures on Gen Z spending set to persist beyond the holiday season, brands and retailers will have to work hard to make their case to the increasingly cash-strapped cohort.

Retailers aren’t waiting for Black Friday to kick off their holiday campaigns. Since October 1, linear TV holiday ad spend reached $475.1 million, up 13.2% YoY, according to iSpot. Weekly spending has also climbed steadily, indicating brands are frontloading their budgets to capture demand across all of Q4.

Holiday shoppers in Asia-Pacific are decisively digital-first, with online intent outpacing in-store browsing throughout the region. However, there are notable variations in consumer behaviors across markets.

Shoppers across Western Europe are gearing up for a digital-first, deal-focused 2025 holiday season. Brands that better understand shifting consumer behaviors can refine their holiday strategies and capitalize on opportunities for growth.

TikTok Shop is now almost as large as eBay, according to EchoTik. The marketplace’s global gross merchandise value (GMV) hit $19 billion in Q3, not far off eBay’s $20.1 billion. Between $4 billion and $4.6 billion of those sales took place in the US, up 125% QoQ, making it TikTok Shop’s largest single market. TikTok’s ability to blend shopping and entertainment is turning the platform into an ecommerce powerhouse. While price concerns and value are top of mind for consumers this holiday season, so too is the desire to shop for fun—an itch that TikTok Shop is perfectly placed to scratch.

Cyber Monday ad spending eclipsed Black Friday for the first time last year, per a Sensor Tower and Pathmatics analysis of spend from the “shopping” category between October 1 and December 31. While the digital sales day brought in just $300,000 more in ad spending than its in-person counterpart, it represents a turning point in the yearslong trend. As even Black Friday shopping moves online, advertising with the tail end of the Cyber Five period in mind could help with both day-of sales and December shopping.

Amazon’s quiet expansion of its low-cost apps, Haul and Bazaar, into 25 markets highlights a cautious strategy to counter Shein and Temu without diluting its core brand. Despite marking Haul’s first anniversary with an unannounced two-day sale on November 10–11—aligned with Veterans Day and Singles Day—the company offered little promotion, even as it ramped up marketing for Black Friday and Cyber Monday. The understated rollout suggests Amazon views Haul less as a major growth engine and more as a defensive play to retain budget-conscious shoppers amid cost-cutting and automation efforts.

Retailers and brands face a unique challenge this year as Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM) approaches: Understanding how AI has changed the game for both consumers and sellers.

Black Friday is set to dominate the 2025 holiday shopping season once again, with Bain forecasting that 55% of US consumers plan to shop the day after Thanksgiving, driving online sales up 5.2% to $12.04 billion. Despite economic uncertainty and waning consumer confidence, value-driven shoppers are expected to flock to early promotions extending into a “Cyber Dozen” period. Retailers like Amazon and Best Buy are likely to continue early deals, while strategic discounting around the Cyber Five will be critical as consumers tighten spending. Retailers' focus should be timing promotions for maximum impact amid cautious holiday sentiment.

Black Friday kicks off the holiday season, and standing out takes more than sharp promotions. Marketers are turning to AI-driven personalization and performance tools to deliver faster, smarter experiences that convert.

Consumer spending will be restrained during the 2025 holiday season as shoppers remain cautious amid ongoing economic uncertainty. That means retail and ecommerce will see the slowest growth since we started tracking the metrics.

Research and planning across retail, travel, and finance are increasingly filtered through AI, making chatbots central to the customer journey.

Retail ended 2024 on a high note as mobile shopping drove ecommerce sales and stores staged a comeback. Will the 2025 holiday season be as fruitful?