It's mid-February, which is actually when the full picture of the season comes into focus.

“Returns are in, brands are sharing how the holidays really performed on investor calls, and before we know it, we're going to start planning for the next cycle,” said our analyst Suzy Davidkhanian on a recent episode of “Reimagining Retail.”

As retailers wrap up their analysis of the 2025 holiday season and begin planning for 2026, here’s how consumer behaviors are evolving across channels and what this means for future holiday strategies.

AI shopping assistants are becoming mainstream

The 2025 holiday season marked a significant turning point for AI in retail, with many brands reporting that AI tools drove meaningful holiday sales.

• This trend is expected to accelerate in 2026.
• "The native AI tools really will matter to retailers because there's going to be that kind of behavior shaping with a big player like Amazon," said our analyst Sky Canaves. "If Amazon is offering this superior customer experience through Rufus and making it very easy to shop and find products, then other retailers will have to keep up with similar offerings."

This means retailers need dual AI strategies for 2026, developing native AI tools trained on first-party data while also ensuring visibility on third-party AI platforms like ChatGPT and Gemini.

TikTok Shop emerges as a holiday powerhouse

TikTok Shop demonstrated remarkable growth during the 2025 holiday season, with US gross merchandise value reaching $500 million during the four-day period from Black Friday to Cyber Monday alone.

"There was a 50% increase in buyers," our analyst Zak Stambor. "There are so many more people looking to the platform and purchasing on the platform than there were just a year earlier, and that's only going to grow."

The platform saw increasing participation from established brands as the threat of a US ban faded and its new ownership structure solidified. Major brands like SKIMS conducted highly produced livestreams, signaling growing confidence in the platform's staying power.

This holiday season, TikTok Shop represents a significant opportunity for brands to reach consumers outside the Amazon-Walmart duopoly that dominates ecommerce. As the platform matures, retailers should develop specific strategies to capitalize on its growing influence in discovery and purchasing.

Physical stores remain critical differentiators

Despite the continued growth of ecommerce, physical retail remains essential to holiday strategy. Omnichannel retailers have significant advantages during the holiday season through capabilities like last-minute shopping, in-store pickup, easy exchanges, and same-day inventory visibility.

"Differentiating what they offer by just providing something different and distinct from other retailers out there and using that to their advantage," Stambor emphasized. "Some retailers do well, but a lot of retailers just miss the mark there and don't seize on that opportunity."

The operational backend that supports these omnichannel experiences is particularly critical during the high-volume holiday season. As Davidkhanian noted, "People buy online, they want to pick up in store... it's not necessarily a shiny penny for 2026, but it's critical. Otherwise, you start to erode trust."

Looking ahead

The 2026 holiday season is expected to see similar growth rates to 2025, approximately 2.6% for overall US retail and 6.6% for ecommerce, according to EMARKETER’s February forecast.

For retailers planning their 2026 holiday strategies, success will depend on balancing personalization with the unique challenges of gift-giving occasions, where purchase intent often differs from typical shopping patterns.

• The tension between budget consciousness and the desire to give meaningful gifts will continue to shape consumer decisions, requiring retailers to communicate value beyond simple discounting.
• "Value goes far beyond price, and there are so many different ways that retailers can pull the value lever," said Stambor. "That can be leaning on loyalty programs, offering bundles, or exclusive merchandise, especially at a time when margins are being pressed."

Listen to the full episode

We prepared this article with the assistance of generative AI tools and stand behind its accuracy, quality, and originality.

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