The forecasts: Black Friday will again be the top shopping day this holiday season—a title it has held in five of the past six years, according to Bain’s Cyber Five forecast.

• The firm expects the day after Thanksgiving to gain further momentum, with 55% of US consumers planning to shop, up from 51% last year.
• That aligns with our holiday ecommerce forecast, which calls for Black Friday to fuel the five-day stretch from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday as online sales increase 5.2% the day after Thanksgiving to $12.04 billion. That would outpace the Cyber Five’s overall growth of 4.3% and make Black Friday the second-largest online sales day after Cyber Monday, which we project to generate $14.73 billion.

An expanded sales period: Last year’s calendar brought the shortest-possible stretch between Thanksgiving and Christmas, prompting retailers and brands to launch holiday promotions early. Several major players—including Amazon and Best Buy—rolled out “Black Friday” deals a week ahead of Thanksgiving, creating an extended sales window we dubbed the “Cyber Dozen.”

• This year’s gap between Thanksgiving and Christmas is only one day longer, so that extended period is likely to continue, even if not all retailers discount across the full 12 days.
• For example, the day before Thanksgiving has become a more important shopping day over the past two years as more retailers opt to stay closed on Thanksgiving itself. Both we and Bain expect that trend to continue this year.

The context: Promotions and discounts are likely to be particularly important this year amid widespread consumer concerns about the macro landscape.

• Economic uncertainty remains high: More than three-quarters (77%) of consumers expect higher prices on holiday items, and 57% anticipate the economy will weaken in 2026, per Deloitte. That’s the least optimistic outlook since the firm began tracking sentiment in 1997.
• Consumers across nearly every generational and income level plan to pull back this season. The lone exception is Gen X, which expects to boost spending by 3%.
• Value is a priority. Three quarters (75%) of shoppers plan to take advantage of October and Thanksgiving week deals, up 7 percentage points from last year, and nearly half (49%) say getting a great deal is the most important factor that determines where they’ll shop.

Our take: Like nearly every holiday forecaster, we expect this season to be challenging as consumers tighten their belts. In that environment, retailers should focus resources on key spending moments, notably the Cyber Five and the days leading up to Thanksgiving.

While every retailer has limited discounting firepower, they need to be strategic about when and where they offer promotions, ensuring they reserve enough to make an impact during those peak periods.

Go further: Listen to the “Reimagining Retail” episode “From Discounts to Emotional Marketing: What Retailers Should Be Focusing on This 2025 Holiday Season” and read our Holiday Shopping 2025 report.