Travel companies are cutting jobs to keep costs under control and adapt to softening US demand, part of a broader wave of layoffs. US employers set more than 153,000 job cuts in October, per Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Hotels and airlines have come under renewed pressure as demand moderates, costs remain elevated, and operational disruptions—including those tied to the current government shutdown—test their performance. The longer the shutdown lasts, the greater the risk of disruptions to holiday operations and travel. To stay resilient, companies can target international and more affluent consumers less affected by economic uncertainty, while cross-training airline and hotel staffers to beef up customer support.

Consumers again demonstrated resilience in the New York Federal Reserve’s most recent Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. For three years lenders have largely stayed on the sidelines when it came to extending credit to average consumers—the average Bank of America credit cardholder’s FICO score was 777 as of Q1 2025. Banks have already started to shift their lending behavior, but it may be too late.

Holiday shoppers are stressed and overwhelmed, per Accenture’s 19th Annual Holiday Shopping Survey. And this is leading to lower conversion rates: 85% of consumers are likely to abandon their carts due to frustration or indecision, according to the survey. To best meet customer needs quickly, retailers can partner with providers like Checkout.com on its one-click checkout solution Flow Remember Me or PayPal-owned Honey as it integrates AI-powered product recommendations based on users’ conversations with chatbots.

We expect US holiday sales to rise 3.6% in the final two months of the year, a slowdown from last year’s 4.4% gain, but much stronger than our May outlook, when we anticipated just 1.2% growth. The shift stems from consumers’ surprising resilience despite tariffs, inflation, and a softening labor market. Major retailers like Walmart and Amazon have reported steady demand, with tariffs adding only modest price pressures. However, spending remains uneven across income groups as higher earners benefit from wage and wealth gains. Retailers will need to emphasize affordability and value to attract cautious middle- and lower-income shoppers this season.

Sprouts Farmers Market projects flat to 2% same-store sales growth in Q4, signaling a sharp slowdown after strong midyear gains as consumer spending cools. Q3 results missed expectations, with 5.9% growth versus forecasts of 7.4%. In response, Sprouts is emphasizing value through expanded private labels, unique product innovation, and affordable prepared foods, while leveraging its new loyalty program to drive repeat visits. Despite broader retail pressure and cautious shoppers, Sprouts remains optimistic—opening more stores than planned and leaning on its differentiated, health-focused positioning to sustain long-term momentum amid an industry-wide pullback.

Visa and Mastercard reported strong growth in their most recent earnings. Visa’s net revenues increased 12% YoY in its Q4 2025, per its earnings release. Mastercard’s net revenues grew 17% YoY in Q3, per its earnings release. Lower-income consumers are more sensitive to tariff-induced inflation and other economic events. If lower- and medium-tier cardholders pull back on spending, their premium counterparts who are more insulated from economic pain can keep spending afloat. Issuers are following the same strategy: Citi, Chase, and American Express all launched or revamped premium cards this year.

Rising costs and softening consumer demand led Kraft Heinz, Hormel, and Mondelez to cut their full-year outlooks, reflecting mounting pressure across the food industry. Hormel cited higher commodity costs and production setbacks, while Kraft Heinz and Mondelez reported slowing sales as inflation-weary shoppers traded down to cheaper or private-label options. Consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level in months, and the looming SNAP benefit cutoff could further dampen spending. With costs climbing and value-conscious behavior spreading, food companies are being pushed to focus on efficiency and share preservation over aggressive growth.

Major casual dining chains are bracing for weaker Q4 sales as the government shutdown and broader economic headwinds weigh on consumer spending. Brinker International maintained its outlook despite Chili’s gains, while Cheesecake Factory reported slowing momentum and Chipotle cut its sales forecast for the third straight quarter. With real income growth stagnating and menu prices continuing to rise, many consumers are cutting back on dining out. To stay competitive, restaurants need to focus on value-driven promotions and loyalty programs designed to attract price-sensitive diners and encourage repeat visits.

Wayfair extended its 2025 winning streak with Q3 earnings that far outpaced expectations, posting 70 cents per share and $3.12 billion in revenues, driven by rising orders and strong US demand. The retailer’s strategic pillars—Wayfair Rewards, Wayfair Verified, and new physical stores—continue to enhance customer loyalty and omnichannel strength. AI innovation, including its Muse engine and Discover tab, is boosting engagement and conversion. Despite housing headwinds and tariff pressures, Wayfair’s results underscore resilience, though sustaining momentum amid tightening consumer budgets remains a challenge.

Hasbro and Mattel enter the 2025 holiday season on divergent paths after contrasting Q3 results. Hasbro outperformed expectations and raised its outlook, fueled by strong growth in its Wizards of the Coast and digital gaming divisions, while Mattel missed estimates and kept guidance steady amid cautious retailer orders and tariff pressures. Despite broader industry growth, slowing consumer demand and higher costs pose headwinds. With Hasbro’s diversified mix offering resilience if toy sales weaken, Mattel’s reliance on traditional toys could make it more vulnerable to price-sensitive shoppers this holiday season.

While many Amazon Big Deal Days shoppers sought savings on essentials, nearly one in three participated “just for fun,” per a new CivicScience survey. About 41% planned purchases in advance, while 38% made impulse buys, showing a mix of deliberate and spontaneous shopping. Despite signs the event may have underperformed, it still offered strategic value by driving engagement, boosting retail media investment, and generating incremental sales. Retailers can build on this momentum by personalizing offers, sustaining engagement post-event, and using campaign data to refine future promotions and deepen shopper loyalty.

United Airlines is forecasting record-breaking Q4 profits as CEO Scott Kirby credits international travel and high-spending passengers for driving growth, with premium cabin and loyalty program revenues up 6% and 9% year over year. The optimism echoes Delta’s positive outlook, but the broader travel market shows strain: only 21% of US adults plan to travel this holiday season, according to Bankrate, down from 27% last year. As costs rise and options shrink, especially for younger travelers, the industry faces a widening divide—prospering at the top while losing price-sensitive consumers it can’t afford to ignore.

Black Friday is set to dominate the 2025 holiday shopping season once again, with Bain forecasting that 55% of US consumers plan to shop the day after Thanksgiving, driving online sales up 5.2% to $12.04 billion. Despite economic uncertainty and waning consumer confidence, value-driven shoppers are expected to flock to early promotions extending into a “Cyber Dozen” period. Retailers like Amazon and Best Buy are likely to continue early deals, while strategic discounting around the Cyber Five will be critical as consumers tighten spending. Retailers' focus should be timing promotions for maximum impact amid cautious holiday sentiment.

With most official data still paused, private sources like ADP, Carlyle, and the NRF are shaping the economic picture ahead of the holidays—and it’s showing signs of strain. Retail sales rose 5.4% YoY in September but slipped month to month, while high earners kept spending as middle- and low-income households pulled back. Hiring has weakened, confidence remains muted, and Moody’s Analytics warns that nearly half of US states face recession risk. The evidence points to a slowing consumer sector and a holiday season defined by cautious spending and heightened competition.

Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days failed to spark early holiday shopping, with only 23% of consumers buying holiday items and just 7% picking up Halloween goods, according to a Numerator survey. Most shoppers used the event for everyday essentials, apparel, and beauty products rather than seasonal purchases. Despite 59% planning future holiday buys on Amazon, many were cautious due to inflation and economic concerns. With weaker engagement and no sales statement from Amazon, this year’s event likely underperformed expectations, highlighting a shift toward more deliberate, budget-conscious consumer behavior ahead of the holidays.

Over half (56%) of US luxury consumers plan to maintain or increase their spending in the next three months as of July 2025, a sharp rebound from April's low of 47%, according to a September 2025 report from Saks.

Whole Foods has cut prices on more than a quarter of its products in the past year, including over 1,000 private-label items, its chief merchandising and marketing officer said at Groceryshop, per Modern Retail. Weekly promotions and deals tied to specific days reinforce the value push. The retailer needs to prove that “premium” and “value” aren’t mutually exclusive. By doubling down on price investments, amplifying Prime-member discounts, and leaning into convenient, high-quality prepared foods, the grocer can reframe itself as both aspirational and accessible.

Streaming is outplaying movie theaters for most consumers, despite frustration around streamers’ rising subscription prices. Three-quarters of US adults have streamed a recently released movie in the past year instead of watching it in a theater, per an AP-NORC poll. Brands shouldn’t abandon theaters for streaming or vice versa but should instead focus on approaching each channel with a clear strategy. Streaming, especially ad-free tiers, offers data-driven targeting, while theaters offer cultural impact and immersive experiences. Strong campaigns will employ both, using streaming for precision and theaters for impact.

Despite its $999.99 price tag, the ROG Xbox Ally X is selling out, showing there’s still strong consumer interest in on-the-go gaming experiences. Preorders for the handheld gaming console sold out Friday, per Xbox. Xbox console prices are inching up at a not-so-subtle rate—with two price bumps this year—undercutting the old adage that waiting to purchase until post-launch leads to lower costs. Companies should bundle experiences, not just hardware, lean into mobility features, amd address price increases head-on.

Nearly half of US adults have changed their streaming subscriptions in the past six months, with cost now serving as the top driver of both cancellations and new signups. Two-thirds of those who dropped a streaming service said it was too expensive, per YouGov. As cost sensitivity rises, building trust through easy trials and frictionless exits will be crucial. The platforms that focus on quality service and diverse content over hype and lock-in systems will make their offerings feel more like essential services.