The news: Digital video will widen its lead over linear TV this year in total share of the TV and video ad spend market.

• The Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) forecasts US digital video ad spend will grow 11% YoY in 2026, reaching $81.9 billion, per its Digital Video Ad Spend and Strategy report. Growth continues to slow from 21% YoY in 2022 and 15% in 2025.
• Digital video will account for 61% of TV and video ad spend this year, the IAB projects, compared with 39% for linear.

Digging into the data: Digital video continuing its share grab over linear TV confirms that audience migration is translating into ad dollars.

• Growth in ad spend is normalizing but staying at a high baseline, indicating that digital video is entering a more mature and predictable phase rather than losing momentum.
• Legacy TV players may need to compete for relevance with programmatic ad buying and household targeting.

In addition, category mix shows where demand is strongest and which sectors are more aggressively rebuilding or expanding customer acquisition.

• Consumer packaged goods (CPG), retail, and tech will lead 2026 in overall US digital ad spend by category. CPG’s $16.9 billion in spend and 13% YoY growth demonstrates sustained reliance on video for mass reach.
• Wellness (up 24% YoY), pharma (16%), and travel (15%) display faster estimated growth than CPG, which shows room in ad channel mixes for diversification.

Social adjustments: Alongside these digital video and linear TV dynamics, social video ad spend’s lead over connected TV (CTV) ad spend grew last year—bringing in $28.2 billion compared with CTV’s $26.5 billion—and that dominance is expected to continue in 2026.

• Advertisers are prioritizing platforms with tighter attribution and shorter paths to purchase—areas where CTV still lags.
• Even as CTV becomes more popular, the growing gap between it and social video adds pressure to address measurement gaps, frequency control, and pricing.

Recommendations for marketers: Expect more blended video planning as linear becomes supplemental, CTV remains premium but scrutinized, and social video becomes a bigger supporter of campaign goals.

• Balance omnipresence and channel focus by evaluating objectives (awareness versus conversion) to see which media drives the best results.
• Prepare for potential market saturation by maintaining a presence across CTV and linear while adjusting budgets based on each medium’s overall share of ad spend.