The news: Synchrony’s net revenues fell 2% YoY in Q2 2025, per its earnings release. Our take: Synchrony came off of a rocky Q1 2025 but locked down significant deals over the course of Q2 that will help drive growth through the rest of the year.

Last November, our analysts made some predictions about how the retail category would fare in 2025. Now that we’re halfway through the year, it’s time to check back in on what has (or hasn’t) happened. "We're seeing many of our predicted trends playing out, though not always in the ways we anticipated," said our analyst Suzy Davidkhanian on a recent episode of the "Behind the Numbers" podcast. "The retail landscape is evolving rapidly, with some developments accelerating faster than expected while others face unexpected headwinds."

Target will no longer match prices at Amazon and Walmart, a move it claims will simplify its pricing policy, per a Bloomberg report. Strategically, this is another move that could backfire for Target, which is already having a hard time getting shoppers to its stores. It could widen the gulf that is emerging between the retailer and its mass-merchant rivals, who are increasingly using Target’s own tactics against it.

AI is upending every aspect of marketing, from neuro-contextual ads that read emotions to autonomous shopping agents that make purchasing decisions. As tech giants consolidate control of the sector, six pivotal trends are reshaping advertising, search, and commerce.

The news: President Donald Trump signed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act, known by its shorthand as the GENIUS Act, during a White House ceremony on Friday. Our take: The GENIUS Act ushers in the clarity and legitimacy sought after by crypto players and traditional FIs alike.

The news: Walmart introduced a private label for tweens, Weekend Academy, just in time for the back-to-school shopping season. Our take: As Target proved, retailers that use their private labels to deliver on-trend products at affordable prices can win big with shoppers. While Walmart hasn’t always been known as a destination for stylish products, its growing investments in its store brands could help it capitalize on Target’s fading “Tarzhay” magic and become a go-to for value- and design-conscious shoppers.

Men’s care brand Every Man Jack employs a strategic calendar-based marketing approach that shifts focus throughout the year, responding to consumer behavior and competitive pressures.

Retail media is not just for retailers anymore. US commerce media ad spending is projected to hit $118.4 billion by 2029, growing at a 15.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), per a May EMARKETER forecast.

Direct-to-consumer (D2C) ecommerce is evolving, driven by Gen Z’s shopping habits and the rise of powerful AI tools.

The news: Gen Z’s share of private label spending will overtake that of baby boomers by 2026, according to a Numerator report. Our take: Gen Z’s affinity for private labels is part of a broader behavioral shift—one that retailers are making the most of. To encourage loyalty among this notoriously fickle cohort, companies will need to stay on top of emerging food trends, foster exclusivity and a sense of urgency with limited-edition releases, and make sure they satisfy Gen Zers’ desire for attractive packaging, transparent labeling, and sustainability.

As Walmart celebrates its 63rd birthday this year, the retail giant continues to differentiate itself through data capabilities, technological innovation, and a willingness to experiment with new strategies.

A young, culturally influential, and economically powerful group, Black consumers are shaping digital trends through high engagement with streaming and social media while shaping retail with their distinct shopping preferences.

The news: Consumers increasingly trust shopping suggestions from AI, even more than product suggestions from content creators, positioning the technology as a trusted and personalized guide rather than a back-end tool. 27% of US consumers trust AI shopping recommendations, per Walmart’s Retail Rewired Report, compared with 24% who trust suggestions from social media influencers. Our take: AI retail tools are most likely to succeed if they offer both speed and a sense of user control. Retailers should let users set spending caps and offer options to pause or customize recommendations to help AI agents feel more like a trusted assistant than a pushy salesperson.

On today’s podcast episode, we discuss the ingredients of Walmart’s current recipe for success and the technology that’s most likely to propel them into the future. Listen to the conversation with our Senior Analyst Sara Lebow as she hosts Vice President of Content Suzy Davidkhanian and Analyst Rachel Wolff.

The news: The Trump administration recently met with leading retailers, including Amazon and Walmart, to explore ways in which more US consumers can get their prescription medications directly from pharma manufacturers, according to a Bloomberg report. Our take: It’s unrealistic to expect pharma’s middlemen to be cut out anytime soon, as they are so deeply rooted in the US healthcare infrastructure.

The trend: Walmart has begun rolling out “Summer Frights” Halloween displays in about 1,000 stores across the US, featuring quirky early-season items like watermelon jack-o’-lanterns and ghost plushies in Hawaiian shirts. Our take: Walmart is smart to embrace offbeat retail moments like Summerween. While consumers are cutting back on discretionary spending, they continue to splurge on seasonal celebrations like Halloween and the holidays. Halloween alone has become a major retail event, with spending hitting $11.6 billion last year—a 31.8% increase from pre-pandemic 2019. Summerween pulls some of that spending forward and gives budget-conscious shoppers a playful reason to open their wallets—even if they’re feeling spooked by the economy.

The news: Verizon customers can now pay-by-bank through Trustly in Verizon’s brick-and-mortar stores. Our take: As long as the cost of accepting credit cards remains sizable, merchants who have the means to dodge fees will find ways to make pay-by-bank accessible.

The situation: Low-income Americans are feeling squeezed by high prices, declining pay, and public assistance that doesn’t go far enough. Bottom line: Declining after-tax income and tariff-driven inflation mean relief for low-income Americans is unlikely anytime soon. Their budgets will tighten, shrinking grocery baskets and curbing discretionary spending. While Walmart, Dollar General, and other value retailers are currently propped up by higher-income shoppers, that cushion could quickly disappear if those customers expect tax-cut windfalls and return to old spending habits.