Amazon sits at the top of US ecommerce, accounting for 37.6% of sales this year, according to our forecast. In addition to generating billions of dollars in sales, Amazon’s ecommerce business propels its other ventures, including retail media and B2B ecommerce. By harnessing the power of generative AI, Amazon could leave its retail competition even further in the dust, and possibly catch up to the Google and Meta duopoly.

Whether you’re an established brand like Wendy’s or a young D2C building an audience, understanding the right mix between organic and paid social is key, especially as the line between the two blurs. “I think paid is planned paid, and organic has opportunistic pay that could go along with it,” said Jimmy Bennett, vice president and global head of brand engagements and partnerships at Wendy’s.

“If you want to dominate the digital landscape, you’ve got to win or be a clear leader on the three core pillars: media, advertising, and commerce,” our analyst Andrew Lipsman said during our recent “Attention!” summit.

This year, US social network ad spending will grow at its slowest pace since we began tracking it, at just 3.4%, to reach $68.45 billion, according to our forecast.

Google put ads in its Search Generative Experience. YouTube has a new unskippable 30-second ad spot. HBO Max relaunched as Max. And The Kroger Co. is paving the way with in-store retail media. Here are what updates from these companies and more mean for advertisers.

YouTube is positioned to be an advertising powerhouse. It’s one of the original digital video players, courting advertisers at a time when connected TV advertising is climbing. The platform’s Google ties offer it a more trustworthy reputation in the US than TikTok. And use is already extremely high. But YouTube’s high standing also makes growth difficult. Here are five charts summarizing YouTube’s position and potential.

On today's episode, we discuss what happens now that Montana has approved a ban on TikTok, what Amazon's AI chatbot might look like, why Meta got a record fine from the EU, what space advertising looks like, a Supreme Court ruling on an infamous internet law, how good humans are at multitasking, and more. Tune in to the discussion with our director of Briefings Jeremy Goldman, analyst Evelyn Mitchell, and vice president of Briefings Stephanie Taglianetti.

In China, ecommerce channel ad spending represents over 38% of total digital ad spending, and ecommerce search spending accounts for 64.0% of total search. Could the US figures reach similar heights?

We slashed our 2023 US ad revenue estimates for almost every social platform. For Snapchat (revised down by $505.2 million), TikTok (down $649.0 million), and Twitter (down $991.0 million), the cuts are significant. For Pinterest (down $31.5 million) and Reddit (down $40.9 million), the cuts are smaller but still impactful—$40.9 million is nearly 10% of Reddit’s annual revenues.

Instagram has become an essential platform for ecommerce businesses’ social media strategies. Brands that leverage the social platform’s Instagram Story ads can boost their online presence, broaden their audience, and enhance engagement to achieve success.

With user penetration nearly complete and time spent starting to plateau or decline on many platforms, social networks have run out of easy paths to incremental budget among their advertisers.

The 2023 upfront market will likely be the last one transacted primarily on Nielsen’s legacy currency. A shift from traditional TV to digital video advertising is the main factor driving this change.

While Meta struggles with innovation and attracting younger users, at Snapchat, innovation and Gen Z users are in high supply. So why is the company struggling? “Snap doesn’t lack when it comes to innovation,” our analyst Jasmine Enberg said on a recent episode of our “Behind the Numbers” podcast. “But there are serious questions about the health of its core business, and it really needs to focus on turning those things around.”

Total media ad spending in the US will pass the $350 billion mark this year, but growth is slow at just 3.8%, according to our forecast. “That is not great compared to almost anything in recent memory; however, there is a U-shape to this line,” our analyst Ethan Cramer-Flood said during our “US Digital Ad Spend Outlook” webinar. Connected TV and retail media will prove to be bright spots, but social media could be a challenge.

US digital ad spend growth will return to double digits next year at 11.2% growth, following 2023’s slower growth of 7.8%. Growth certainly won’t return to the 37.6% growth we saw in 2021, but it will increase steadily. Come 2025, US digital ad spend will pass $300 billion and keep climbing to nearly $400 billion by the end of 2027.

Digital ad spending will increase slightly faster this year than in 2022, but the bump will be minimal. Total media ad spending growth will roughly hold steady. But there are parts of the world where spending is surging.

Worldwide mobile AR revenues will more than double from $18.67 billion this year to $39.81 billion in 2027, per ARtillery Intelligence. These figures encompass revenues from both consumer and enterprise applications, such as productivity software, advertising/marketing applications, consumer spending on in-app purchases and premium apps, entertainment and games development, and retail/ecommerce enablement software.

Digital will help keep total media ad spending buoyant this year, just. A rebound is expected for 2024, with video advertising growing faster than any other format. Proportionally, though, video spend will remain relatively small in France and Germany.

Google and Meta’s combined share of the US digital ad market dropped below 50% in 2022, and in just a few years that figure will be down to 43.0%. The triopoly is losing share now, as well; Amazon’s ascent will not be fast enough to offset the weakness of the other two giants.

Pending legislation may require Meta and Google to pay domestic news publishers for linking to articles. Both companies say they will block news content if it passes.