In this podcast episode, we discuss what makes this season unique for the beauty category, what “creating magic” looks like during the holidays when every brand is fighting for attention, and how brands can build real loyalty when discounts dominate the conversation. Listen to the discussion with Vice President of Content and host, Suzy Davidkhanian, Principal Analyst, Sky Canaves, and Head of Marketing for Bluemercury, Minyi Su.

The US economy is showing signs of strain just as retailers prepare for the holiday season, with weak job growth, rising unemployment, and soft consumer sentiment adding to inflation and tariff pressures. August saw only 22,000 new jobs created, while job cuts rose and openings fell to a two-year low, underscoring a fragile labor market. Consumers remain pessimistic, tightening their spending plans despite potential Fed rate cuts. Our outlook is cautious: holiday retail sales are projected to grow just 1.2%, forcing retailers to lean heavily on promotions and loyalty-driven discounts to capture demand without eroding margins.

Abercrombie & Fitch sees slowdown looming as tariffs take effect: The retailer expects sales growth and profits to be seriously pressured in 2025.

Deckers relies on scarcity to drive Ugg, Hoka growth: That tactic paid off with record sales and profits during the holiday quarter.

Victoria’s Secret’s rebooted fashion show resonated with Gen Z: That, alongside the company’s efforts to expand and refresh its assortment, resulted in a solid holiday performance.

Solid December sales cap a year of healthy retail growth: But 2025 could be a different story, as tariff concerns keep all but the wealthiest consumers from spending freely.

Retailers ended 2024 on a high: Holiday ecommerce sales surged by nearly 9% YoY as steep discounts and tariff fears spurred spending.

November retail sales surge past expectations: Shoppers shifted their spending up a gear amid a flurry of deals and concerns over tariff-related price hikes.

Temu, Shein, and TikTok Shop are winning this holiday season: Sales growth for all three outpaced larger players like Amazon and Target in November.

Nike troubles complicate Foot Locker’s turnaround plan: The retailer lowered its full-year guidance as it struggles to win over cautious shoppers outside of peak shopping periods.

Steep discounts drove shoppers to splurge on Black Friday: Consumers scooped up bargains across several categories, helping online sales jump 14.6% YoY the day after Thanksgiving.

This could further propel BNPL volume this holiday season as well as catapult merchants’ holiday volume.

Walmart imported fewer goods this holiday season: While that could be a sign that it expects tepid sales, it also reflects the retailer’s growing reliance on third-party marketplace sellers to broaden its product assortment.

Consumers plan to return to malls this holiday season, shop more in-person: Mall visits are expected to rise 18%, which is good news for department stores—although Amazon, Walmart, and Target remain top destinations.

August retail sales data points to consumers’ continued resilience: While spending is healthy, shoppers remain deal-focused as they look ahead to the holiday season.

Many are willing to go into debt to get through the season. This could become a problem for payment providers

For advertisers—and consumers—the biggest shopping season has begun. But claiming a piece of the forecasted $1.37 trillion sales pie may mean stretching out promotions, expanding payment options, and investing in website and app enhancements.

October’s and November’s share of US digital holiday consumer spend has not shown a consistent increase since 2018, despite retailers moving their holiday sales earlier, per an April 2024 report from Comscore.

TJX is confident it can grow market share this year: The retailer’s offerings continue to resonate strongly with deal-seeking shoppers.

It was a happy holiday season for several retailers: Lululemon, Abercrombie & Fitch, Crocs, and Pandora are among the companies that beat expectations over the final months of 2023.