In 2026, economic uncertainty is quietly reshaping consumer payment behavior, driving shifts across cards, cash, BNPL, and emerging alternatives as households adapt how they manage spending and access liquidity.

Private banking needs to change.

FIs need to contend with the growth of stablecoins as a payment mechanism and their popularity as an asset Gen Z consumers favor for a number of different banking uses.

Consumer loan originations rose sharply, and it expects a boom if credit card interest gets capped at 10%.

It’s an early mover among traditional financial institutions.

The banking industry’s pushback has fallen flat against OCC trust charters for crypto firms.

Banks, crypto companies, and Congress continue to grapple with regulating the space.

Sluggish fixed point-of-sale (POS) terminal sales are forcing providers to rethink their strategies. From adding softPOS capabilities to adding AI tools and vertical-specific offerings, POS software is becoming the real competitive battleground.

2025 was a big year for cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency payment users grew 24.8%, to 4.9 million US adults, per our forecast. Between institutional buy-in and unprecedented support at the highest levels of the US government, the crypto market hit record highs—before plummeting in the final months of the year. Crypto gained mainstream momentum, but its volatility hasn’t changed. For banks and crypto infrastructures, this unpredictability kneecaps efforts to integrate crypto as an accepted currency at the point-of-sale.

A Canadian dollar-backed stablecoin is coming, but it may get stuck in a regulatory quagmire.

Themes in stablecoins, crypto infrastructure, bank charters, and Gen Z behaviors.

An institutional crypto desk would legitimize crypto in a way that no other FI could.

The 10 most-read briefing articles of 2025 included analyzing Gen Z behavior, AI agents, and more.

Visa will offer stablecoin settlement in Circle’s USDC for its US network, per a press release. Visa and Mastercard are investing in crypto to preserve their dominance in the US payment ecosystem. Crypto-based payments have been slow to catch on in the US—we forecast just 1.8% of US adults will transact with crypto this year. It’s unclear which components of crypto will enter the mainstream, so a strategy like Visa’s, where it invests in everything from stablecoin-issuing sandboxes and crypto settlement to cards that transact over traditional rails but pay out rewards in crypto, could position it to maintain its edge wherever crypto catches on.

PNC unveiled direct Bitcoin trading for private bank clients—high net-worth (HNW) and ultra-high net-worth (UHNW) individuals. PNC clients will be able to buy, sell, and hold Bitcoin through PNC using Coinbase’s crypto as a service product. Amid the Great Wealth Transfer, banks and brokerage firms can’t ignore crypto, and they shouldn’t satisfy themselves with retail offerings. With integrated crypto trading and custody, PNC fixes a crucial competitive gap with crypto firms and forward-thinking brokerages, augmenting wealth services to attract consumers who expect to invest in crypto. Peers will follow.

Cash App and Binance are targeting teen and pre-teen engagement with payments and crypto, per press releases. Emphasizing safety and financial education will be critical for any youth financial product to get off the ground. Streamlining parental controls through easy-to-monitor features like push notifications can win over parents of Gen Alpha, who are more likely to be millennials who favor mobile- and app-first financial experiences.

Cryptocurrency exchange Kraken announced the public launch of Kraken VIP, a service akin to a private crypto bank for investors with a $10 million average balance or $80 million in annual trading volume. Crypto is tapping the ultra-luxury market with benefits and exclusivity that have been the domain of private banks and high-end credit cards. This new frontier for crypto should incite traditional financial providers to evolve their UHNW offerings to meet rising experiential expectations.

Bank of America (BofA) is recommending that clients allocate up to 4% of their portfolios to crypto, a more crypto-forward stance than previously and one that clicks with demographic trends. What seems like a minor change to investment policies further legitimizes crypto as a mainstream asset and will have a long-term positive impact for BofA. Other banks should be prepared to do the same: Crypto as an investment is no longer niche, and institutions that don’t adapt will be left behind.

In 2026, stablecoins, agentic commerce, and AI-driven rewards will reshape the payments industry. Providers need to bet early or risk being sidelined by faster, cheaper, and more intuitive payment experiences.

Canada published the draft of its Stablecoin Act as part of its Budget 2025 Implementation Act. It applies to stablecoins issued by entities that are not prudentially regulated. For Canadian banks and fintechs, the impending legislation signals that stablecoins are normalizing everywhere as a regulated alternative to cash as a store of value and for electronic payments. The use cases are particularly interesting for Canadian financial institutions and stablecoin issuers who will use stablecoins to move money across the US border.