US retail and ecommerce sales growth will take a hit in 2025 as unpredictable changes in tariff policies ripple through the economy, shaking consumer confidence.

The news: Costco plans to open a standalone gas station next spring in Mission Viejo, a city in Orange County, California. The 40-pump station, which will be the membership club’s largest to date, will be about two miles from two existing Costco warehouses—one of which already has a gas station. Our take: Costco is investing in ways to reinforce the value of membership, and fuel is central to that equation. If this off-site station succeeds, it could set the stage for a broader rollout of standalone locations—especially in high-traffic markets. The move could also prompt rivals like Sam’s Club to follow suit as competition in the warehouse club space heats up.

There are now more than 80 retail media networks (RMNs) in the US. The volume of RMNs, combined with the dominance of Amazon and other established competitors, makes it challenging for new and niche RMNs to capture share.

Brands are staying quiet this Pride Month: Retailers that once loudly proclaimed their LGBTQ+ initiatives are keeping mum to avoid government attention.

Private label brands are no longer just the cheaper alternatives sitting on store shelves. They've evolved into strategic assets that build customer loyalty, boost retailer margins, and increasingly compete with national brands on quality and design, not just price.

2 in 5 brands plan to scale back Pride engagement: The change results from mounting conservative pressure—but some brands are reaffirming commitment.

Private label brands are set for another surge in momentum as consumers become increasingly concerned about the impact of tariffs.

Foot traffic to Target declined for the tenth straight week, according to Placer.ai. Visits to Target fell 7.9% the week of March 31, per the latest data. Walmart’s foot traffic has also fallen for 10 consecutive weeks, while visits to Best Buy are down from a slight rise in mid-March.

Tariffs will have a wide ranging impact on prices, consumer sentiment: Warehouse clubs, off-price retailers, and discount grocers could have an edge in this challenging retail environment.

Canada’s trade war with its largest trading partner is underway. While uncertainty remains around the scope and depth of US tariffs, Canadian brands and retailers need to rebalance a heavy reliance on US-based customers and suppliers.

Darden expects consumers to keep splurging on restaurant meals despite uncertainty: But dining out could be one of the first indulgences to go once tariff-related price hikes take effect.

Costco tries to shift tariff burden onto China suppliers: But that strategy comes with increasing risks as Beijing takes a more active role.

Amazon and Walmart dominate the landscape, but the other half of US ecommerce sales is still up for grabs.

Consumers’ value focus is an expansion opportunity for Costco, BJ’s: The two plan to open dozens of stores to capitalize on demand for warehouse retailers.

Costco’s sales spiked in February: The company’s ability to offer value—and possibly its commitment to DEI—boosted sales during a difficult month for retailers.

Warehouse club membership has its privileges: Strong sales show that consumers see these stores as a smart way to save as costs rise.

Consumers are voting with their wallets: 1 in 4 has stopped shopping at their favorite stores because of politics.

"Sam's Club's in-store experience is really smooth, easy, and elegant thanks to technology," our analyst Zak Stambor said on a recent "Behind the Numbers: Reimagining Retail" podcast.

Many large banks are watering down or removing online references to DEI in a polarized environment.

In January, the most interesting retailers capitalized on New Year’s trends like resolutions, lower-alcohol consumption, and an influx of holiday returns. Poshmark and Sephora introduced new partnerships, while Amazon and Temu increased their own retail media-related offerings. Here are the eight most significant retail developments of January 2024, ranked by their potential market impact.