US paid retail membership fee revenues will be higher than ever before in 2025, reaching $46.39 billion, according to our May 2024 forecast. That’s an increase of 10.8% YoY, with over half (51.8%) of these revenues going to Amazon.

This year, non-Amazon membership and loyalty programs need to find more ways to compete with the giant, while Amazon needs to make sure it can maintain growth and stickiness among existing members. Here are three expectations our analysts have for membership and loyalty programs in 2025.

1. Gamified loyalty programs will get more sophisticated

Gamified loyalty programs aren’t new. Retailers have offered ways to stack rewards to encourage a purchase for years. But in 2025, these gamified programs won’t necessarily be tied directly to a purchase, said our analyst, Suzy Davidkhanian on our “Behind the Numbers” podcast.

Retailers will use gamification this year to bring consumers to their stores and websites and to collect consumer data for their media networks, focusing on a lasting consumer relationship rather than a single purchase.

Ulta piloted a Wordle-like program called GlamXplorer for select loyalty members in 2024. Some 86% of players returned to the games the following week and users engaged with the games an average of six times per week, according to Glossy. Building entertainment into loyalty kept people returning to Ulta properties, and other retailers will likely follow suit in the future.

2. Paid loyalty programs will also likely feature more partner perks in 2025

“Just like you don’t need a thousand credit cards for things, you don’t need a thousand memberships for things,” said Davidkhanian.

As retailers vie for subscribers, they need to demonstrate the value of their offering—like Amazon's ecommerce, entertainment, and delivery infrastructure—in order to be worth consumers’ limited budgets. While 58% of US adults are Amazon Prime subscribers, far fewer are members of Sam’s Club (27%), Walmart+ (25%), and Costco (21%). And even fewer subscribe to other services, per our survey done in partnership with Bizrate Insights.

“The key difference between what Amazon can do as a company and what other retailers can do is that Amazon has kind of perfected this flywheel,” said our analyst Blake Droesch. But without their own bespoke streaming platforms and delivery systems, other retailers will forge even more partnerships this year to compete with Amazon.

Walmart+ is winning the partnerships push right now, offering perks from Paramount+, Burger King, and online vet Pawp. Instacart has made similar moves, partnering with Peacock and UberEats for its Instacart Plus members. “That not only makes them competitive with Amazon Prime but also with competing services like DoorDash,” Droesch said.

3. Amazon will finally figure out grocery

Amazon will finally (successfully) extend its flywheel into grocery this year, Droesch predicted. The company has tried to do this with limited success for years, but has been unable to match the scale of grocery giants like Walmart.

But with small-format grocery stores like Amazon Grocery, which was launched in October 2024 in Chicago, Amazon will be able to harness its technology more effectively.

The key factor here is its proximity to Whole Foods, which doesn’t offer many national brands. By placing Amazon Grocery next to Whole Foods, Amazon has created a two-stop shop its consumers may be more inclined to use, said Droesch.

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