While we were right that retailers would offer richer in-store experiences to attract shoppers, we were wrong about how Amazon, discount retailers, and dollar stores would evolve their physical and digital strategies. From AI tools that stayed online to unfulfilled marketplace ambitions, here’s how we did with our 2025 predictions.

In 2026, commerce media will shift toward the core mechanics of shopping, as retailers reorganize, stores become high-impact media showcases, agentic AI opens new monetization, and financial platforms move closer to shoppable environments.

Old Navy wants to stand out for consumers with convenience, now offering same-day delivery on items including jeans, beanies, and dress shoes through DoorDash. “It’s a classic win-win,” said Nishith Rastogi, founder and CEO of Locus, a logistics tech provider recently acquired by IKEA parent company Ingka Group. “The retailer gets speed, and the platform gets density and stronger utilization across its network.”

A slate of retailers boosted their outlooks following strong Q3 performances, a positive sign as the industry heads into the most important shopping period of the year. Best Buy, Dick's Sporting Goods, Abercrombie & Fitch, and Kohl's all updated their FY sales guidance, pointing to ongoing consumer resilience despite growing pessimism about the state of the economy and personal finances. The outlook for holiday spending is notably stronger than it appeared earlier this year: We expect sales in November and December to rise 3.6% YoY, slower than last year’s 4.4% growth but a significant upgrade from our May forecast.

Future-proofing against—and capitalizing on—advances in consumer-facing AI will be the overarching theme for retailers in 2026.

Lululemon announced a deal with the NFL to sell fan apparel for all 32 teams. The collection will include men’s and women’s clothing, along with accessories. Lululemon, like Abercrombie & Fitch and Best Buy before it, sees the NFL partnership as an opportunity to appeal to the league’s massive and engaged fanbase. In lululemon’s case, it has a strong chance of winning over the growing numbers of women who, thanks to Taylor Swift, are tuning in more often to games, and looking for stylish ways to rep their favorite teams.

Gap, Inc. launched a creator platform, the latest move among retailers tapping influencers to extend their cultural reach and attract new customers. Retailers like Gap need creators to stay relevant with consumers—especially younger audiences that get much of their shopping inspiration on social media. But to attract those influencers, companies need to make sure that their incentives measure up. Free products are a good start, but offering sales commissions—as Gap and Lowe’s do—will bring creators on board and keep them in the fold.

McDonald’s is bringing back its Monopoly promotion after nearly a decade, with help from an unexpected retailer: Best Buy. The partnership between Best Buy and McDonald’s could be a harbinger of things to come, as companies across industries look for ways to broaden their appeal to value-seeking customers—and as retailers with media networks look to bring in more nonendemic advertising dollars.

The holiday sales season is set to begin in earnest in October, with a number of retailers rolling out events to compete with Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days. Walmart, Target, Best Buy, and Kohl's will all run sales that coincide with Amazon's October event, putting them in a better position to capitalize on shoppers' desire to get a head start on holiday shopping.

Best Buy is relying on its store footprint, rich first-party data on tech shoppers, and in-house creative capabilities to win more spending from endemic and nonendemic advertisers. Best Buy is smart to lean into its physical footprint to differentiate itself in retail media. While some advertisers remain reluctant to lean into in-store due to measurement concerns, Best Buy’s ability to tie purchases back to consumers and to literally turn its stores into billboards should help ease those worries. If it can succeed, Best Buy can move beyond its tech niche to become a more serious player in retail media.

A leaked Adweek-reviewed file details how The Trade Desk partners with 49 retailers worldwide to sell ad placements built on shopper data. The document reveals steep markups and inconsistent rules: Albertsons charges up to 45% of media costs, Best Buy limits custom audiences, Costco sets $100K minimums, and Walmart imposes fees capped at $3.50 CPMs plus measurement charges. Other retailers add restrictions around ad categories or approvals. The leak highlights both the value and complexity of retail media as brands chase audience targeting tied directly to transactions. Transparency remains a challenge, with costs and conditions varying widely by partner.

Consumer spending will be restrained during the 2025 holiday season as shoppers remain cautious amid ongoing economic uncertainty. That means retail and ecommerce will see the slowest growth since we started tracking the metrics.

US retail and ecommerce sales growth will take a hit in 2025 as unpredictable changes in tariff policies ripple through the economy, shaking consumer confidence.

There are now more than 80 retail media networks (RMNs) in the US. The volume of RMNs, combined with the dominance of Amazon and other established competitors, makes it challenging for new and niche RMNs to capture share.

Best Buy will stick to its tariff playbook despite court rulings: The retailer is doing its best to ignore the noise and focus on how best to serve its customers.

Retailers and brands are racing to deploy AI across the shopping journey, but trust, quality, and execution will define who wins.

Memorial Day sales are live at Amazon, Best Buy, Home Depot, and more: As consumers cut discretionary spending, retailers aim to boost sales through holiday-driven promotions.

Growth rates in retail media ad spending are slowing YoY. The channel’s contribution to total digital ad spending continues to rise, however, highlighting the increasing influence of retail media on holistic advertising strategies.

Core inflation rose 0.1% MoM in March, the lowest rate in four years: But that relief is likely to be short-lived as Amazon, AutoZone, Best Buy, and others warn of price hikes ahead.

Last week, Best Buy Ads launched Social+, an offering that allows brands and agencies to leverage Best Buy’s first-party data for social media campaigns. The tool is currently only available for Meta campaigns on Facebook and Instagram, but will expand to other social media networks in the future, per a press release.