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EMARKETER

Retail Media Forecast Update H1 2025

Retail Media Rebuilds as Growth Slows and Market Pressures Rise

Report by Sarah Marzano  |  May 13, 2025
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Report
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
As retail media matures, seismic shifts are happening beneath the surface
Display advertising is emerging from the long shadow of search
Can automation be a salve for retail media fragmentation?
What in-store retail media ad spending lacks in volume, it makes up for in impact to DOOH
Implications for retailers
Recommendations for advertisers
Sources
Media Gallery
About This Report
Growth rates in retail media ad spending are slowing YoY. The channel’s contribution to total digital ad spending continues to rise, however, highlighting the increasing influence of retail media on holistic advertising strategies.
Topics
Retail Media
Digital Advertising
US
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
As retail media matures, seismic shifts are happening beneath the surface
Display advertising is emerging from the long shadow of search
Can automation be a salve for retail media fragmentation?
What in-store retail media ad spending lacks in volume, it makes up for in impact to DOOH
Implications for retailers
Recommendations for advertisers
Sources
Media Gallery

Growth rates in retail media ad spending are slowing YoY. The channel’s contribution to total digital ad spending continues to rise, however, highlighting the increasing influence of retail media on holistic advertising strategies.

Key Question: What are the biggest opportunities in retail media amid slowing growth?

Retail Media Ad Spend Growth Is Decelerating, Even as Its Digital Share Expands, (billions in US retail media ad spending, % change, and % of total digital ad spending, 2025-2029)
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Key Stat: Retail media ad spending is on track to represent more than $1 in every $5 spent on digital media by 2029.

This report can help you:

  • Determine market sizing (brands, media platforms, agencies, and solution providers)
  • Develop media strategy (brands and agencies)
  • Allocate budget for campaigns (brands and agencies)

Here’s what’s in the full report

1file

Exportable files for easy reading, analysis and sharing.

10charts

Reliable data in simple displays for presentations and quick decision making.

Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. As retail media matures, seismic shifts are happening beneath the surface
  3. Display advertising is emerging from the long shadow of search
  1. Can automation be a salve for retail media fragmentation?
  2. What in-store retail media ad spending lacks in volume, it makes up for in impact to DOOH
  3. Implications for retailers
  1. Recommendations for advertisers
  2. Sources
  3. Media Gallery

Charts in This Report

Retail Media Ad Spend Growth Is Decelerating, Even as Its Digital Share Expands, (billions in US retail media ad spending, % change, and % of total digital ad spending, 2025-2029)Retail Media Is on Track to Make Up One-Fifth of CTV Ad Spending by 2028, (billions in US retail media connected TV (CTV) ad spending, % change, and % of CTV ad spending, 2025-2029)
US Retail Media Ad Spend Will Grow Even With Heavy Tariffs (billions in US retail media ad spending, by tariff forecast scenario, 2021-2025)Amazon's Retail Media Growth Rates Have Decelerated 3 Quarters in a Row (% change YoY in Amazon retail media sales worldwide, Q1 2023-Q4 2024)
Amazon Will Add the Most Ad Dollars in 2025, but the Long Tail of RMNs Will Grow Faster (% change and billions in increased US retail media ad spending vs. prior year, by company, 2025)Retail Media Display and Search Will Add a Near Equal Amount of Ad Spending Between 2025–2029, (billions in US retail media ad spending and CAGR, by format, 2025–2029)
The Future of Retail Media Display Is Off-Site (billions in US retail media off-site vs. on-site display ad spending and 4-year CAGR, 2025-2029)Amazon's Retail Media Dominance Is Less Pronounced Off-Site (Amazon vs. other retail media networks (RMNs) % of US on-site, off-site, and total retail media ad spending, 2025)
The Vast Majority of Retail Media Display Will Be Bought Programmatically by 2026, (billions in US programmatic retail media digital display ad spending and % of total retail media digital display ad spending, 2022-2026)In-Store Retail Media Will Make up One-Fifth of Digital Out-of-Home Ad Spending by 2027, (billions in US in-store retail media ad spending, % change, and % of digital out-of-home ad spending, 2025-2029)

authors

Sarah Marzano

Contributors

Suzy Davidkhanian
VP, Content
Kyndall Krist
Senior Copy Editor
Wendy Malloy
Director, Reports Editor
Emma Noyes
Graphic Designer, Data Visualization
Andrew Spink
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Matt Torpey
Senior Chart Editor
Emman Velasco
Chart Editor
Paul Verna
VP, Content
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