A US-TikTok deal could be on thin ice again amid heightened trade tensions after President Trump threatened a 100% tariff on Chinese imports. Beijing has promised to respond to the tariffs accordingly—putting the popular short-form app’s US future at risk weeks after Trump signed an executive order to keep the app operational. Brands must recognize TikTok’s ongoing strength as a cultural engine among younger demographics, but continue viewing cross-platform strategies as a necessity, not a nice-to-have.

The RealReal is upbeat about its prospects as tariffs and the uncertain environment boost resale’s appeal. While the company is not yet profitable, it is winning over more shoppers who see the circular economy as an opportunity to snag a good deal on luxury merchandise. Demand for resale is accelerating as consumers look for ways to escape tariffs and find better deals—not to mention shop more sustainably. While shoppers worried about saving money are unlikely to patronize a luxury-focused resale platform, The RealReal is in a good position to win spending from aspirational customers who are interested in luxury but are otherwise unwilling—or unable—to pay retail prices.

High tariffs have become an unavoidable part of doing business in the US following the implementation of President Donald Trump’s sweeping reciprocal duties. Retailers are slowly becoming resigned to the fact that higher tariffs are here to stay—for now. But their ability to minimize business disruption is severely hampered by the fact that new tariffs can be imposed at any time, which could immediately turn any attempts to adjust sourcing into sunk costs. As e.l.f. Beauty CEO Tarang Amin told CNBC, “It’s the uncertainty around the tariffs that make things more difficult.”

The news: WPP has taken another hit in earnings, underscoring the current unstable market defined by economic uncertainty.Profits dropped 71% pre-tax in the first half of the company’s financial year, falling to £98 million ($125.2 million), while operating profit fell nearly half (47.8%), reaching £221 million ($282.3 million). Our take: WPP’s profit plunge serves as a wake-up call for agencies to accelerate transformation and prove value beyond media buying. In an AI-dominated landscape, advertisers are demanding more for less.

China is taking more decisive steps to encourage domestic consumption and rein in price wars that are fueling deflation and straining trade relations. Beijing said it would allocate an additional RMB 69 billion ($9.6 billion) to its consumer goods trade-in program starting in October, bringing the total funds issued this year to RMB 300 billion ($41.87 billion). At the same time, the government plans to “address disorderly competition among enterprises” and more closely scrutinize overcapacity in key industries, according to a Politburo statement. Addressing both issues—domestic consumption and damaging price wars—are key to China’s ability to weather higher tariffs and expand its influence on a global stage. But that’s easier said than done.

The news: Amazon reported strong Q2 results for its advertising business, with advertising revenues reaching $15.6 billion—up a significant 23% YoY. Net sales increased 13% YoY to $167.7 billion, well above Q2 guidance that warned of “tariffs and trade policies” and “recessionary fears.” Our take: Moving forward, Amazon will need to innovate what it’s already offering by pioneering a retail media strategy that extends Amazon’s data and ad tech beyond its own storefront, AI-driven tools that simplify creative production and optimization at scale while prioritizing privacy, and more immersive and shoppable ad formats in its streaming offering.

Amazon shrugged off tariff concerns in its Q2 earnings report, after reporting growth ahead of expectations. But the retailer’s Q3 forecast was murky, suggesting that while consumer demand remains resilient, uncertainty from tariffs and trade policy—along with extensive investments in AI—could weigh heavily on its bottom line. Amazon’s strong quarter and Q3 sales guidance help dispel some fears about the health of the consumer. But its decision to once again offer an unusually broad profit range for the next quarter shows considerable uncertainty about the impact the Trump administration’s trade policies will have on retailers’ costs.

Etsy and eBay see opportunity to gain share as tariffs burden their competitors and consumers adjust their spending habits. Both companies are well-positioned to benefit from renewed interest in resale as tariffs make buying new more expensive for shoppers. The two platforms also now face less competition from Shein, Temu, and Amazon in online ad auctions—allowing them to be more efficient with marketing spend and reach more potential customers. While neither eBay nor Etsy is fully immune from the effects of tariffs—and their potential drag on the economy and consumer confidence—they are less exposed than most other retailers.

The luxury sector is facing a “challenging” and “somewhat unprecedented” environment, Prada Group chairman Patrizio Bertelli said—causing even once-hot brands like the company’s namesake label to lose momentum. Luxury companies for the most part view the current downturn as a cyclical blip in an otherwise robust industry. But the prolonged slump is revealing structural challenges—namely, heavier reliance on American and Chinese consumers, as well as a tendency to lean on price hikes rather than innovation to drive sales.

Procter & Gamble is hedging its bets as it grapples with higher costs related to tariffs and “stressed” consumers. The CPG company expects organic growth between 0% and 4% this year—a notably wider range than it usually forecasts, underscoring the uncertainty it (along with the rest of the CPG and retail industries) faces. Uncertainty is the byword for this year. While consumer sentiment is recovering, financial pressures, particularly on low-income households, remain—and are likely to intensify as tariffs boost inflation and the “Big Beautiful Bill” curbs buying power. Regardless of which way sentiment is headed, there is no question that tariffs are reshaping consumers’ purchasing decisions.

Snacks maker Mars said it plans to invest an additional $2 billion in US manufacturing through next year to build new facilities and upgrade existing ones in wake of the Trump administration’s tariffs. Tariffs are leading some businesses to boost their US footprint, and we may see more investment announcements. But a key consideration is whether these expansion announcements will represent substantive, job-creating initiatives, or if they are largely symbolic moves designed to support the US government’s current messaging around American manufacturing.

Tariffs could reshape the fashion calendar as brands rethink their merchandising strategies to limit exposure. While Vince’s decision to lengthen its spring season was borne out of necessity, it could herald a larger shift in how fashion brands approach their calendars—particularly as tariffs force tougher decisions about what and how much inventory to bring in. Companies can either go faster—taking a page from the fast-fashion industry and launching new styles quickly and often—or slower, à la Vince, depending upon their customers’ preferences.

emu’s attempts to tariff-proof its business are running into opposition from regulators and sellers alike. The company has been accused of failing to protect EU users from illegal products. Efforts to woo US sellers to its marketplace are also running aground as companies and merchants refuse to sell products on Temu for less than what they retail for on Amazon. For all its troubles, we expect Temu’s US ecommerce sales to rise 13.5% this year, which would be the second-fastest rate of growth among the companies we track—but a far cry from the triple-digit increases it enjoyed over the past few years. With governments increasingly unfavorable to its business tactics—and Amazon increasingly inclined to flex its market power—Temu will need a new playbook to navigate the current era of uncertainty and tariffs.

Deckers and Puma are proceeding with caution as tariffs complicate US operations and consumer sentiment. Of the two companies, Deckers is better equipped to manage the uncertain environment. It has considerably more pricing power than Puma, giving it more room to offset tariff costs. It also has significantly more runway to grow outside the US: International revenues surged 50% in Q1, while Puma is facing weakness in Asia and Europe in addition to North America.

Automakers face an increasingly difficult environment as President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the removal of EV tax credits reshape supply chains and production strategy. Like the broader US economy, auto sales have been resilient thus far, as tariffs and other government policies motivate consumers to buy now. Automakers and dealers are capitalizing on the moment with incentives like employee pricing, but the short-term surge is unlikely to last.

The news: Inflation ticked up in June in a sign that companies are beginning to pass on tariff costs to consumers. Our take: June’s CPI data shows the toll tariffs are beginning to take on consumers’ buying power. While real wage growth remains in positive territory for now, that could change quickly once more companies begin to pass on a greater share of tariff costs to consumers, as the vast majority have signaled they’ll do.

The tactic: Levi Strauss is reducing its SKU count—even as it expands the range of items it sells—to minimize tariff costs and maximize full-price sales. Our take: SKU rationalization is becoming a necessity for Levi Strauss and other brands and retailers looking to manage the impact of tariffs.

The news: The trade war between the US and the rest of the world is heating up again, thanks to President Donald Trump’s latest threats to boost universal tariffs and impose stiffer duties on Canada and Brazil. Our take: The newly announced duties—should they come to pass—will push the US into the heavy tariff scenario outlined in our tariff report. Based on our forecast, that would mean a 1% decline in retail sales this year, the first contraction since 2009, as rising prices force consumers to prioritize essentials.

The insight: The vast majority—80%—of automakers’ $30 billion tariff costs next year will be passed along to the consumer, according to a report by AlixPartners. The consulting firm expects car prices to rise by $1,760 on average—which will slash US auto sales by 1 million over the next three years. Our take: Cars are an essential expense for a majority of Americans. But as the cost of ownership (including insurance, maintenance, and gas) rises, more consumers will be forced to cut spending in other areas. Those pressures could be particularly acute for households that rushed to buy vehicles before tariffs kicked in and are now struggling with higher monthly payments they hadn’t fully planned for.

The news: Temu’s foothold in the US is shrinking as the company pulls back sharply on advertising. Weekly sales slumped more than 25% YoY between May 11 and June 8, according to Bloomberg Second Measure. Our take: Given the importance of the US market to Temu and its merchants, it’s possible that its current pause on US ad spending and shift to Europe is a temporary effort to regroup as it searches for a business model more resistant to tariffs and the end of de minimis. At the same time, the longer the pause goes on, the more ground it will cede to Shein and other competitors—and the harder it will be to regain market share.