The news: A US-TikTok deal could be on thin ice again amid heightened trade tensions after President Trump threatened a 100% tariff on Chinese imports. Beijing has promised to respond in kind—putting the app’s US future at risk just weeks after Trump signed an executive order to keep it operational.

Why it matters: Any deal to sell TikTok to US owners requires China’s approval—which is unlikely to come while trade tensions and heavy tariffs persist, complicating current negotiations and delaying the progress that’s been made so far.

US officials have previously indicated that a TikTok deal is unlikely to proceed before hostilities with Beijing are resolved. Trump’s latest threat increases friction between the US and China, contributing to an environment of uncertainty.

What it means for marketers: A return to uncertainty over TikTok’s future undermines confidence in the app’s long-term sustainability in a key market.

• While TikTok is seen as a go-to for strategies like influencer marketing, marketers are increasingly hesitant to grow spending on the platform, choosing instead to maintain or decrease budgets until the situation stabilizes. While it seemed like a US deal was all but certain, this new hurdle is likely to cause confidence to fall again.
• Continued uncertainty is likely to undermine TikTok’s ability to retain advertisers—evidenced by TikTok’s CPMs plummeting as much as 80% YoY in January, signaling waning confidence and shifting ad budgets.

What brands can do: Recognize TikTok’s ongoing strength as a cultural engine among younger demographics, but continue viewing cross-platform strategies as a necessity, not a nice-to-have.

Brands and creators who have started prioritizing diversification to avoid disruptions and expanding presence on platforms like Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts should continue this investment to provide a cushion if a US deal is once again off the table.

Current TikTok campaigns should be executed with an air of caution: Creating content that can easily translate to other platforms and building frameworks where spending can be quickly shifted if TikTok’s situation changes will prove vital as trade tensions skyrocket.