In-store retail media has long been a mysterious black box for marketers—hard to measure and optimize. But thanks to first-party shopper data and AI-driven measurement tools, that’s changing. Marketers can now pinpoint how shoppers engage with in-store campaigns and tie those interactions directly to sales.

Last November, our analysts made some predictions about how the retail category would fare in 2025. Now that we’re halfway through the year, it’s time to check back in on what has (or hasn’t) happened. "We're seeing many of our predicted trends playing out, though not always in the ways we anticipated," said our analyst Suzy Davidkhanian on a recent episode of the "Behind the Numbers" podcast. "The retail landscape is evolving rapidly, with some developments accelerating faster than expected while others face unexpected headwinds."

Criteo is modernizing retail media by launching a global auction-based ad platform and integrating with Mirakl to enable self-serve advertising for over 100,000 third-party sellers. This dual move addresses two persistent challenges: outdated fixed-price ad systems used by most retailers, and untapped ad spend from marketplace sellers. The auction system gives advertisers more control and performance insights, while Mirakl opens up a scalable, automated path for small sellers. Criteo also brings standardized attribution and reporting across retail partners—fixing transparency gaps. These changes position Criteo as a full-spectrum solution for brands, retailers, and sellers looking to compete in a fast-evolving market.

Retail media search ad spending propelled retail media ad spending to its current size. Now, more retail media networks are closing in on search feature parity, and advertisers are looking for ways to approach the critical channel.

Retail media is not just for retailers anymore. US commerce media ad spending is projected to hit $118.4 billion by 2029, growing at a 15.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), per a May EMARKETER forecast.

The commerce media space is growing fast, and as it gets more crowded, it’s becoming harder to keep up with the retail media giants. But by teaming up, smaller players can more easily scale their networks to achieve the reach to stay competitive.

US commerce media ad spending is projected to hit $118.4 billion by 2029, growing at a 15.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), per a May EMARKETER forecast.

As retail media networks expand, one of the biggest challenges facing marketers is measurement. In fact, 42% of US retail media buyers believe that more effective and accurate campaign measurement is the most important issue in retail media advertising today, according to March 2025 data from Koddi. To help advertisers better assess the effectiveness of their campaigns, Sam’s Club Member Access Platform (MAP) has introduced Omni-Impact—a new AI-powered measurement solution.

The news: China is outpacing the US in retail media’s global rise, with nearly half of its digital ad spending now flowing through retail platforms. While Amazon still leads globally, its growth is slowing—expected to rise just 18.6% in 2025. Meanwhile, players like Uber Eats, Meijer, and Albertsons are growing ad revenues at triple-digit rates. Our take: Retail media is becoming more fragmented and competitive. Success now requires portfolio diversification, especially as new channels—like last-mile delivery and in-store signage—gain momentum. What began as an Amazon-centric, US-led trend is now a worldwide shift reshaping how consumers discover, consider, and buy.

The majority (80.9%) of worldwide retail media ad spend will take place in China and the US this year, according to a March 2025 EMARKETER forecast.

For the first time in its history, the Cannes Lions International Festival of Creativity awarded medals in retail media—a sign that commerce-driven creativity has fully arrived on the global stage.

The trend: Summer retail sales are starting earlier and stretching longer than ever. Our take: Retailers aren’t just chasing summer sales—they’re building revenue engines that integrate ecommerce, loyalty programs, and retail media into a more durable flywheel. By making sales events exclusive to members or offering perks like early access to deals, they’re encouraging sign-ups, deepening engagement, and boosting long-term customer value. The longer promotional windows give retailers more time to drive discretionary spending, alleviate fulfillment bottlenecks, and monetize digital traffic through advertising. That’s especially critical this year, as economic uncertainty prompts more consumers to pull back on nonessential purchases.

DoorDash is strengthening its media network through new ad products and the acquisition of tech company Symbiosys, aiming to help brands reach consumers both on and off its platform.

The news: Cannes Lions 2025 marked a shift in retail media strategy, with platforms like Pinterest and Reddit forging deeper ties with retailers. CVS announced a clean room data partnership with Reddit to allow targeting based on shared first-party data, launching a Sensodyne and Advil campaign this fall. Pinterest partnered with Instacart to enable shopping from pins and connect ad exposure to sales via closed-loop attribution. Our take: Social platforms are becoming full-funnel retail media environments. By fusing community context with purchase signals, these integrations aim to blend discovery and commerce in real time—paving the way for more data-rich, measurable campaigns.

Two-thirds of US retail media buyers expect to spend more on video advertising over the next 12 months, according to March 2025 data from Koddi. Nearly as many (63%) will up their investments in social media.

The insight: Walmart sees a (near) future where customers will shop directly from their smart TVs—preferably one powered by Vizio, which the retailer purchased for $2.3 billion last year. Our take: Shoppers are gradually becoming more comfortable with the concept of shoppable TV. Whether those occasional behaviors become habit will depend on platforms’ ability to offer ads that are personalized and relevant. That puts Walmart at an advantage, given its troves of first-party data—although it faces tough competition from the likes of Amazon and Roku.

The news: Global ad spend growth is slowing but staying positive, with WARC projecting a 6.2% rise to $1.16 trillion in 2025 and MAGNA forecasting a 4.9% climb to $979 billion. Retail media is outpacing linear TV for the first time, and Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon continue to control the majority of digital revenues. Measurable channels like short-form video, retail media, and ad-supported VOD are gaining ground. Our take: Amid economic pressures and trade concerns, advertisers are prioritizing performance, shifting budgets geographically and platform-wise. With elections, AI, and major global events on the horizon, platforms that prove outcomes—not impressions—will shape the next era.

H-E-B is expanding its retail media footprint with the launch of a new self-service advertising platform, developed in partnership with Epsilon.

The news: Cannes Lions 2025 is highlighting how retail media is moving beyond performance marketing into broader applications across brand storytelling, in-store influence, and customer experience. Executives like Victoria Usher and Jim Kane are calling attention to how brands now activate retail data for segmentation, planning, and innovation across media touchpoints including CTV and search. Our take: This shift reflects growing demand for privacy-safe, first-party data solutions amid signal loss and rising complexity. Cannes will underscore retail media’s potential to support creativity and full-funnel integration. The future isn’t just attribution—it’s about making retail platforms vital to brand equity and long-term engagement.

The news: Lowe’s launched a home improvement creator network as part of a strategy to reach younger audiences through social media personalities. The network, which Lowe’s framed as key to deepening its connection with Gen Z and millennial consumers, features MrBeast as its first high-profile partner. Our take: Reaching younger generations is crucial for sustained growth, and as influencer marketing surges, Lowe’s strategy could prove effective at bridging the gap with young homeowners. Influencer collaborations are most likely to be effective when the creator is seen as unbiased and honest, authentic, entertaining, and educational.