eMarketer forecasting analyst Eric Haggstrom discusses our usage estimates for Apple Pay and what’s driving its adoption dominance.

One of the biggest drivers for proximity mobile payment growth is the ever-expanding footprint of stores accepting payments. According to Apple, 74 of the top 100 retail chains accepted Apple Pay as of January 2019, and more have joined since then.

Apple Pay’s dominance and increasing store adoption of mobile proximity payment technology is driving growth in transaction volume in the US, new eMarketer estimates show. This year, we estimate that mobile proximity payment transactions will total $98.88 billion this year, growing another 31.8% to $130.36 billion next year.

Canada is classified as a “high-adoption” country in our global mobile payments forecast.

People in France were early adopters of smart payment cards, including chip-and-PIN and contactless technology. That has stifled proximity mobile payment adoption, with just 15.6% of France’s smartphone users expected to pay with their phone in-store in 2019.

Less than 13% of smartphone users in Germany will use proximity mobile payments this year—one of the lowest rates in Europe. User numbers will increase slowly, but privacy concerns and the popularity of cash and card payments will curtail adoption.

The global payment market will hit a major milestone in 2020: 1.06 billion people are expected to make a proximity mobile payment. But even as countries like China and Sweden take steps toward a cashless society, most of the world will still rely on cash and cards.

This report features our latest forecasts for proximity mobile payment users in Latin America, with breakouts for Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. It also examines emerging trends and key drivers fueling regional market movements.

Growth in proximity mobile payment use in the UK remains slow but steady. Against a strong headwind of contactless card use, mobile payments have struggled to take hold, though young consumer use offers a glimmer of hope.

Mobile payments—both proximity payments and P2P transfers—continue to grow rapidly in volume. User growth is slowing, and increased spending will primarily come from existing users spending more often via mobile phones.

Consumers today have more payment options than ever. But, while mobile payment platforms like Apple Pay, Google Pay and Samsung Pay are increasingly gaining traction, the trinity of cash, debit and credit still dominate—especially with smaller, in-store transactions.

Mobile payments have been thought to be on the cusp of widespread adoption for several years now. But most consumers have responded to the technology with a noncommittal shrug.

Of the 938.2 million proximity mobile payment users worldwide, over two-thirds reside in China and India. Consumer adoption is still in its early days for most markets, but there will be fast growth in retailer support and usage over the next few years.

Mobile will continue to attract more ad dollars in 2019. With that in mind, this report presents 10 predictions to help marketers navigate the mobile and media landscape in 2019.

This year, 55.0 million people in the US will use mobile payments, making up 20.2% of the population, according to eMarketer estimates.

The cash culture in Germany is holding back mobile payment adoption in the country. Many people are comfortable paying with cash and don’t see any significant benefits to changing their habits, especially older generations.

Mobile payment adoption in the UK isn't as widespread as in other markets, with only 7.2 million people in the country expected to use the payment method this year.

Personalized messages, geolocated notifications, loyalty programs—all are available via mobile passes in wallets.

Adoption of proximity mobile payments in the US continues to grow, but at an increasingly tepid pace. They’ve yet to unseat credit cards as the payment option of choice. Meanwhile, peer-to-peer (P2P) payment adoption is driven by platforms like Venmo and Zelle.