TikTok has finalized a deal to maintain US operations, and its growth now depends on higher ad yields and efficiency as user growth slows.

TikTok’s 2026 looks just as uncertain as 2025: Despite new US owners, questions remain about content moderation and its algorithm

TikTok has agreed to a sweeping US restructuring that creates a majority-American–controlled joint venture, fulfilling bipartisan divestment demands and reducing the threat of an outright ban. Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX will hold 50% ownership, with US-appointed directors overseeing data protection, moderation, and the retraining of TikTok’s recommendation algorithm. ByteDance will retain a minority 19.9% stake and continue managing global operations outside the US. The shift brings long-missing stability for advertisers but also creates operational distance from ByteDance’s global systems, potentially slowing innovation and altering performance patterns. The next year will be a critical recalibration period for brands and creators.

For social platforms, AI hype is colliding with user fatigue and rising regulations. In the US, they face stalled engagement and tougher rules as people demand more control and more human experiences.

Baidu posted its sharpest revenue decline on record, with ad revenues falling 18% as AI-generated answers replace traditional search clicks. Ernie Bot now powers responses on most Baidu queries, improving user experience but suppressing monetizable activity—a trend management says will weigh on results into Q4. Competitors like Tencent, ByteDance, and PDD are still growing 20% to 30% YoY, suggesting Baidu’s weakness is structural. While the US market is more diversified, Baidu offers a stress test: AI can reshape search faster than monetization evolves. For advertisers, it’s a reminder that even Google and Microsoft must balance innovation with economic stability.

Global ad spending has steadied after a turbulent year, setting the stage for modest acceleration in 2026. Digital is still the main engine, but traditional media’s rebound will add lift as markets stabilize.

The Trump administration claimed Thursday that China has greenlit a US TikTok transfer agreement, just over a month after President Trump signed an executive order to keep the short-form video leader operational in the US. China’s commerce ministry simultaneously announced that it will collaborate with the US to solve “issues related to TikTok,” but similarly did not elaborate. Tentative talks around TikTok’s future offer short-term stability for advertisers but don’t resolve issues TikTok will face in the long-term.

TikTok is undergoing a sweeping reorganization that consolidates control under ByteDance’s Beijing-based leadership. The company’s global content and distribution teams now report directly to Douyin architect Fiona Zhi, who is closely tied to ByteDance founder Zhang Yiming. The change strengthens central oversight just as the US and China approach a potential TikTok ownership deal—but it also raises questions about governance, transparency, and stability. Advertisers are pausing or shifting spend amid uncertainty over who will run TikTok’s US operations and how its algorithm and data policies will evolve. ByteDance’s move reasserts control—but risks reigniting trust concerns in its largest market.

Adobe introduced a full version of its Premiere video-editing app for iPhone users, offering new opportunities for on-the-go content creation. Premiere on iPhone includes features like sound effects, auto-generated captions, and multi-track timelines for video, audio, and text. It’s free for general editing, and generative AI (genAI) features are available on a pay-per-credit model. Brands that work with influencers should package assets so they’re easier for creators to use on the go and be flexible with formats and publishing schedules to support workflows for more timely, high-impact campaigns.

ByteDance will maintain control over TikTok’s US ecommerce and advertising businesses under the deal brokered by the White House, according to Reuters. Continued uncertainty around the TikTok deal and broader economic terms requires brands and advertisers to stay flexible. That’s harder to do for sellers, since few social commerce alternatives have the scale and success of TikTok Shop. Still, platforms like YouTube and Pinterest can offer similar opportunities to engage, inspire, and educate shoppers, while live commerce platforms like Whatnot and creator-led shopping app LTK could also emerge as winners should TikTok’s influence fade.

President Trump delayed TikTok’s ban until December 16 and claimed Rupert Murdoch, Lachlan Murdoch, Michael Dell, Larry Ellison, and Marc Andreessen are among investors preparing to acquire its US operations. The potential buyer group—stacked with conservative media and tech moguls—raises concerns over political bias on a platform where left-leaning influencers currently dominate. For advertisers, TikTok’s massive 116.6 million US user base remains critical, but ownership politics could shift user trust and open the door for rivals.

TikTok’s US operations may soon be spun off into a new entity majority-owned by American investors, with Oracle, Andreessen Horowitz, and Silver Lake leading the deal. The framework, aimed at complying with the 2024 divest-or-ban law, would give US investors roughly 80% control while ByteDance retains under 20%. The sticking point remains TikTok’s algorithm—whether ByteDance licenses its technology or a US-controlled version is rebuilt. For marketers, continuity is key: any disruption in recommendation performance, targeting, or data oversight could alter ad outcomes on one of their most important platforms.

Asia-Pacific has the largest retail and ecommerce sales in the world. While China continues to dominate global ecommerce share, India and Southeast Asia are increasingly driving growth. As consumer sentiment improves in China, the retail sales gap with the first-place US will narrow in the coming years.

TikTok’s 2024 revenues in the UK, Europe, and Latin America surged 38% to $6.3 billion, more than doubling 2022 levels, per filings cited by Forbes. The growth underscores TikTok’s strength outside the US, where a divest-or-ban standoff continues. Yet regulatory scrutiny in Europe looms large, with over $1 billion reserved for fines, ongoing probes across multiple countries, and potential penalties under the EU’s Digital Services Act. TikTok’s UK penetration tops 32%, with ad revenues projected to triple by 2027. Still, layoffs in trust and safety roles and a pivot to AI moderation could test regulators and user trust.

The news: ByteDance’s TikTok paid people to lend their likenesses to digital avatars, often paying less than $1,000 per actor, per The New York Times. The avatars, which are free for TikTok advertisers to use, were meant for TikTok alone but have appeared on ByteDance’s video-editing tool CapCut and on platforms like Facebook and YouTube. Our take: AI-based productions are democratizing advertising, allowing even the smallest firms to produce high-quality ads with minimal effort and budgets. Forty-five percent of smaller advertisers will use generative AI (genAI) in their videos by 2026, per IAB’s 2025 Digital Video Ad Spend Report. However, brands must weigh the benefits against the risks, considering 31% of US adults say AI use in ads would make them less likely to buy, per CivicScience.

The news: Nvidia is facing a new obstacle in its ability to sell chips to China—Chinese authorities are urging ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent, and others to halt purchases of Nvidia hardware. This follows an agreement between President Donald Trump, Nvidia, and AMD that requires the two companies give the US government a 15% cut of Chinese chip revenues in exchange for permission to sell hardware there, per Bloomberg. Our take: ability to develop and deploy AI models for things like algorithm recommendations, content moderation, and generative AI (genAI) features. Marketers should diversify their AI-powered marketing tools to stay ahead if TikTok’s ad products and UX features develop more slowly.

The news: A US TikTok ban will take effect if a sale isn’t completed by the September 17 deadline, per comments from US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. Lutnick said on CNBC that TikTok will “go dark” if China does not agree to sell to a US owner. He also noted that any deal would require the US gaining control over both the app and its algorithms. Our take: Whether or not a full TikTok ban comes to pass, Lutnick’s comments reinforce a troubling trend: Advertisers are increasingly wary of the platform’s stability, accelerating the shift toward cross-platform strategies.

Digital’s rapid adoption in recent years has made it the dominant medium with which people spend time in China, Japan, and South Korea, with consumption booming in India.

Our midyear report revisits the top trends we named in early 2025 to see what’s shaping the market, evolving fast, or fading in the rearview mirror.

The news: ByteDance is working on lightweight mixed-reality goggles that could directly challenge Meta’s products, per The Information. Our take: If ByteDance can leverage its content ecosystem, creator network, and powerful algorithm, it could carve out a foothold with younger, social media–savvy users. Brands could sponsor AR lenses and place products within digital overlays to turn everyday activities into shoppable moments.