The news: TikTok’s seemingly endless string of revised timelines, promised deals, and abrupt reversals for a US sale came to an end earlier this month when the company formalized a joint venture led by US investors.
The prolonged uncertainty gave immediate competitors Reels and YouTube Shorts a boost in attention and ad spending, but ByteDance’s crown jewel is still the dominant short-form video platform for now—though 2026 is shaping up to be just as unpredictable as 2025, even with the threat of a ban in the rearview.
Where TikTok stands: Ban uncertainty gave TikTok's closest competitors a boost, but its cultural capital in the US remains strong. US teens spend 1 hour and 18 minutes daily on the app, more than double the time spent on Instagram and YouTube combined, per our June forecast.
What will 2026 hold? New ownership comes with a number of unanswered questions. The US-owned TikTok will have a new algorithm trained on US user data, but it's unclear how content moderation or brand safety will be enforced, or if changes will turn off users.
Elon Musk's ownership of X is a cautionary tale for how the new TikTok could take shape. Conservative ownership—led in part by Larry Ellison, who has close ties to president Donald Trump—could lead to dramatic content moderation changes that alienate users.
But for now, TikTok’s cultural and advertising power maintain its status as a must-invest platform for marketers, though its competitors have gained ground. Looming uncertainty will still push some to test other platform waters, and with more and more companies launching vertical video feeds, TikTok will face greater competition in the years to come.