The news: The Trade Desk (TTD) posted a strong Q2 on paper, with revenues up 19% YoY to $694 million, ahead of expectations. Its platform continues to scale in connected TV (CTV) and premium open-web inventory.

But forward guidance for Q3 was cautious, pointing to slower adoption of advanced adtech among big brands, macro-driven budget constraints, and tariff-related spending concerns. TTD closed Friday nearly 40% down from 24 hours prior.

Why it matters: For advertisers, the story isn’t the share price; it’s the health of the open internet as a viable alternative to walled gardens. Programmatic digital display spend on the open web in the US is set to hit $48.8 billion by 2027, per our forecast. Even with growth moderating from the 16.9% surge in 2024, the open web remains one of the few digital arenas where brands can control data, optimize across channels, and tap premium environments at scale.

The quality gap is widening: Demand for premium open-internet publishers has grown 49% annually from 2019 to 2023, per a TTD study. That’s nearly double the rate for nonpremium supply, and aligns with advertiser priorities around brand safety, performance, and contextual relevance. TTD’s model is built to connect buyers to this higher-value inventory, especially in CTV, where competition for engaged audiences is heating up.

Zooming out: While TTD’s growth outlook has softened, other ad-driven firms—Google, Meta, Reddit, and Microsoft—all posted stronger recent quarters, showing momentum across their ecosystems.

Our take: Advertisers should see TTD’s current moment less as a red flag and more as a reminder that open-internet buying is evolving. We forecast the company’s US net ad revenues to climb from $2.13 billion in 2024 to $3.15 billion in 2027, driven by CTV, cross-channel targeting, and greater adoption of clean-room data collaboration.

For media buyers, the opportunity lies in leaning into premium inventory and diversified spend outside the walled gardens—where performance data is more portable and targeting strategies can be owned end-to-end. While macro conditions and competitive DSPs like Amazon may shift share, the open web’s premium segment is growing fast, and TTD remains one of the few scaled gateways into it.