Weight loss hype pushed Lilly well ahead of Novo, yet Novo’s early pill win signals a turn toward more affordable, convenient obesity treatments.

Weight and health improvements vanish within two years without sustained use, new research finds.

As more Americans take weight loss drugs, eating, shopping, and healthcare expectations are all evolving

Eli Lilly is dropping the price of its weight loss drug Zepbound for cash-pay customers, following rival Novo Nordisk’s price cut less than two weeks ago. Lilly and Novo’s newly lowered D2C prices will help some cash-pay consumers, but the affordability gap is a major barrier to broader adoption.

Novo Nordisk has applied for approval of a higher-dose version of its weight loss drug Wegovy using a special FDA review pathway for a faster decision. Novo’s move to introduce a higher-dose Wegovy shifts competitive expectations in the weight loss category in terms of speed and effectiveness, with over 20% weight loss becoming the new benchmark for success.

Eli Lilly became the first healthcare or pharma company to reach a $1 trillion valuation. Pharma’s entry into “the trillion-dollar club” is largely driven by success in the obesity treatment category that’s poised to reshape consumer health and wellness. However, Lilly’s particular rapid growth signals that while first-mover advantage in a high-demand disease area matters, it doesn’t guarantee staying on top. Pharma manufacturers can make up for not being first by committing to innovative drug development that drives more efficacious products, pursuing new clinical indications, and correctly anticipating market developments that may impact supply and demand.

Novo Nordisk is dropping the cash-pay price of its blockbuster GLP-1 drugs Wegovy and Ozempic from $499 per month to $349 for existing patients. Novo is betting on lower prices to lure some patients away from Zepbound. However, Lilly’s D2C strategy for Zepbound is working—the drugmaker said that about 35% of new Zepbound prescriptions are from the self-pay channel. It’s a signal that most patients who are prescribed Zepbound aren’t asking to switch to Wegovy. That could shift if the price gap between the two drugs widens.

Eli Lilly will no longer offer CVS Health’s prescription drug benefit plan for its employees, per Bloomberg. Lilly may have been considering another pharmacy benefits manager outside of this news. But it’s more likely that CVS’ choice to promote a rival drug (Wegovy) over Zepbound was Lilly’s breaking point—showing that even employee benefit plans can be used as leverage in the battle for weight loss drug dominance.

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly struck a deal with the Trump administration to lower GLP-1 prices in exchange for expanded Medicare and Medicaid coverage. It’s by far the most consequential pharma agreement to date For Novo and Lilly, it’s a tradeoff: lower prices for higher patient and prescription volume—a bet that should pay off over time, especially since tariff relief is part of the deal.

Eli Lilly is offering cash-pay pricing for its weight loss drug Zepbound at Walmart. This is the first time Lilly has offered a retail pharmacy pick-up option to customers who order Zepbound through LillyDirect. Walmart will soon be the only retail pharmacy where customers paying cash for Novo’s and Lilly’s GLP-1 weight loss drugs can pick up their prescriptions. This will help the company benefit from increased foot traffic as more of Lilly’s customers enter its stores.

President Donald Trump remarked late last week that the cost of brand-name GLP-1 drugs could drop to $150 in the US. Trump didn’t detail which insurance markets the lower-cost GLP-1s would apply to, or how he plans to force Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to drop their prices. With prescriptions surging, GLP-1 drugmakers must prepare for tougher scrutiny and calls from the government, doctors, and patients alike to make treatments more affordable. Pharma marketers should intensify messaging around their weight loss drugs being cost-effective over the long haul by preventing more serious chronic diseases.

Doctors started paying more attention to information and ads for new weight loss drugs months before they began prescribing them, according to research from ZoomRx. The study tracked obesity health-related web browsing and ad exposures for 279 healthcare providers on digital channels and 204 on TV and connected TV. Pharma companies need to find where doctors are searching or reading about Rx drugs and how their interest in a drug’s information is changing, even before the sales numbers are in. Track Reddit forums and physician social media channels like Sermo and Doximity to gauge behaviors and attitudes and shift marketing plans to meet them. Use sales reps and peer-led webinars to capture early interest—and keep refreshing that marketing with updated data and patient results as competing entrants begin to pull attention away.

Obesity drugs are cost effective and provide good value despite high price tags, according to analysis from the Institute for Clinical Economic Review (ICER). It’s still early in the GLP-1 weight loss drug market with only two approved medicines, but a massive pipeline of more than 170 drugs in development. While Novo and Lilly have significantly dropped D2C prices, we think it’s going to take more competition in the market and different drug delivery methods to get to affordable and accessible pricing. Marketers should consider lower prices, but also digital tools to improve adherence, manage side effects, and offer lifestyle support.

The news: Eli Lilly’s stock plunged about 14% on Thursday as clinical results of its experimental obesity pill orforglipron fell short of Wall Street expectations. Our take: We think Lilly has the edge over Novo, despite Thursday’s market reversal due to Lilly’s obesity pill falling short in its trial. That’s likely just a near-term blip—12% weight loss in a little over a year validates that the medication is quite effective, especially when considering that most people would prefer a pill to injecting themselves. Lilly also has in its favor that Zepbound drives better weight loss results than Wegovy, while it faces less competition from the copycat GLP-1 market since semaglutide is more commonly compounded than tirzepatide.

The news: Novo Nordisk’s stock plunged over 20% on Tuesday after it cut full-year guidance, citing lower-than-expected sales growth for Wegovy, its blockbuster weight loss drug. Our take: Despite the recent slump, we think Novo is well positioned to rebound. It remains one of two dominant players in the weight loss drug space and is still posting profit growth, albeit below Wall Street expectations. With the US adult obesity rate expected to hit 50% by 2030, the market opportunity is huge. Meanwhile, regulators are likely going to make it more difficult for compounded drugs to be sold as long as brand-name forms stay off the FDA’s drug shortage list.

Self-pay patients can now get discounted Wegovy at retail pharmacies: It’s a smart play on the part of Novo Nordisk to make its GLP-1 available at pharmacies where most consumers still get their prescriptions. Will rival Eli Lilly follow suit?

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