Retailers aren’t waiting for Black Friday to kick off their holiday campaigns. Since October 1, linear TV holiday ad spend reached $475.1 million, up 13.2% YoY, according to iSpot. Weekly spending has also climbed steadily, indicating brands are frontloading their budgets to capture demand across all of Q4.

Q3 was another strong quarter for Walmart and Amazon, and another weak one for Target. Shoppers are showing a clear preference for the convenience, product selection, and overall value that Amazon and Walmart offer, while being less impressed by Target’s assortment and shopping experience. Economic uncertainty is heightening the gap, as more shoppers turn to Amazon and Walmart for necessities like groceries while pulling back on the discretionary spending that fuels Target. Walmart's and Amazon's ability to combine low prices with an extensive product selection and fast and convenient delivery will serve them well this holiday season, while Target has the harder task of convincing price-conscious shoppers to spend on nonessential items.

Walmart and Target closed their recent earnings calls on sharply different footings, but with a surprisingly shared vision for the immediate future.

Walmart raised its full-year outlook again as its strong value proposition and fast-growing ad business drive broader consumer spending. It now expects net sales growth of between 4.8% and 5.1% this year, and EPS between $2.58 and $2.63. Q3 comps rose 4.5% YoY, with higher traffic and ticket size, and gains were strongest among higher-income shoppers. US ecommerce sales jumped 28%, supported by faster delivery, rising Walmart+ signups, and 33% growth in US ad sales (excluding Vizio). Walmart is also expanding to emerging channels, including ChatGPT. Its focus on value, convenience, and tech has strengthened its position, helping it compete with Amazon and capture more holiday and online spending.

Target will spend $5 billion next year to upgrade stores, merchandise, and digital capabilities as it works to return to growth. Net sales fell 1.5% YoY in Q3, and traffic declined 2.7%, underscoring its exposure to weakening discretionary spending. With shoppers prioritizing value, Target has struggled to deliver enough newness. To get back on track, CEO Michael Fiddelke is focusing on restoring merchandising authority, enhancing the omnichannel experience, and investing in technology. The retailer is using AI to surface trends faster and integrating with ChatGPT to enable conversational shopping. Target’s ability to dig itself out of its current hole will largely depend on how quickly it can fix its merchandising problem and improve the in-store experience.

Starbucks unveiled a new holiday drink available exclusively at Target stores. The release of the limited-edition Frozen Peppermint Hot Chocolate marks the first time the two companies have collaborated on a holiday drink. While the holiday exclusive won’t address their deeper challenges, it’s the right note to hit at a time when shoppers need extra motivation to visit a Starbucks or Target store.

This benchmark covers how ad buyers can calibrate their retail media ad spending and budget allocations against the market, and how publishers and solution providers can assess whether their ad revenues align with industry trends.

This benchmark covers how ad buyers can calibrate their search ad spending and budget allocations against the market, and how publishers and solution providers can assess whether their ad revenues align with industry trends.

Target is overhauling its ecommerce fulfillment model by reducing the number of stores that handle online delivery orders to ease strain on operations and improve the in-store experience. After testing the approach in Chicago, it has expanded to 36 markets with more planned next year. The strategy helps cut transportation costs, reduce out-of-stocks, and raise customer satisfaction, while allowing longer next-day delivery windows. However, Target still trails Walmart and Amazon in delivery speed and coverage and faces ongoing challenges as shoppers increasingly focus on essential purchases.

After years of athleisure dominating closets, denim jeans are back in the spotlight. As brands reinvest in fit, quality, and cultural relevance, the US denim market is set to reach $21.5 billion by 2028, according to Euromonitor International.

Target’s plan to win holiday sales relies heavily on in-store activations and a steady stream of deals throughout the last two months of the year. All of Target’s nearly 2,000 stores will be transformed into “nostalgic Alpine villages,” complete with festive décor and weekend events throughout the season. The retailer will also offer weeklong deals and host an earlier Black Friday sale to accommodate consumers' price sensitivities. Target is hoping that an emphasis on joy and whimsy—and discounts—will help it recapture some much-needed spending.

Amazon will hire 250,000 workers this holiday season, the same number it brought on each of the past two years. The retailer could account for more than half of all seasonal hires in the last three months of the year, as other companies pare back hiring plans in the face of considerable uncertainty. Amazon’s consistent hiring plans illustrate its (relative) optimism heading into what could be a difficult season.

OpenAI is now allowing users to connect to select third-party apps within the ChatGPT interface. The integrations expand the chatbot’s utility while encouraging users to spend more time within the platform. Consumers may not yet be willing to make transactions within ChatGPT, but they are open to its recommendations. ChatGPT’s integrations with Expedia and Booking.com could transform how people approach trip planning, all while siphoning more traffic from Google—and familiarizing users with the idea of making more purchasing decisions with the help of AI.

Starbucks and Target tapped into the buzz around the release of Taylor Swift’s latest album, “The Life of a Showgirl,” to help fuel their turnaround. The stakes are high for both companies as they struggle to get customers excited about their offerings. At the same time, the question for both Starbucks and Target is whether they can turn the short-term bump into lasting growth.

Citigroup has accepted President Donald Trump's money, creating a new trust held by his son Eric Trump for some of the president's assets, per Bloomberg. Citi is calculating that the Trump family’s potential investments outweigh the reputational risks—and potential blowback from consumers. Businesses’ decisions have recently led to massive boycotts, for example Disney lost 1.7 million subscribers after Jimmy Kimmel’s highly politicized temporary suspension, per Tvinsider. And Target has faced declining profits after stepping back from DEI policies. We will likely see more movement in this direction, as banks fear being labeled as debanking under this administration.

Target introduced a self-checkout experience designed for blind and low-vision shoppers, as well as customers with mobility disabilities. For retailers, introducing accessible features is a relatively low lift that can immeasurably improve the experience for a subset of customers. They also boost goodwill—which Target desperately needs right now. Such solutions offer a crucial point of differentiation at a time when consumers are being especially strategic about where they spend.

OpenAI is preparing to turn ChatGPT into an advertising platform, posting a new role for an engineer to build systems for ad integration, campaign management, and attribution. The move could position ChatGPT as a new challenger to Google, Meta, and Amazon’s ad businesses. Already a major driver of referral traffic to retailers like Walmart, Etsy, and Target, ChatGPT has clear potential to evolve into a commerce and ad engine. But execution will be critical: Poorly integrated ads risk undermining user trust, even as AI-driven ad formats are projected to grow at triple-digit annual rates in the coming years.

Target is pushing to reclaim its place as a premier destination for affordable fashion. The retailer is turning its small-format SoHo store into a design concept that showcases its apparel and beauty assortment, the company told Axios. Target also relaunched its Target Style Instagram account earlier this month, which will offer up both outfit inspiration and shoppable content. Target’s ability to regain its fashion authority goes hand-in-hand with its ability to reverse its declining fortunes.

Toys R Us will open 10 new flagship stores and 20 seasonal holiday shops by year-end, doubling down on its return to physical retail. If the retailer can consistently find ways to make in-store shopping fun, its strong name recognition and nostalgic pull should help it recapture meaningful market share.

The holiday sales season is set to begin in earnest in October, with a number of retailers rolling out events to compete with Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days. Walmart, Target, Best Buy, and Kohl's will all run sales that coincide with Amazon's October event, putting them in a better position to capitalize on shoppers' desire to get a head start on holiday shopping.