Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs landed harder than expected. Uncertainty remains, given the pause on reciprocal tariffs for countries willing to negotiate with the US—along with an escalating trade war with China. Which markets will take the greatest hits? And how might our US forecasts change?

Trump hikes tariffs on China, pauses higher reciprocal tariffs on others: We expect US retail sales growth to slow due to the broader impact of his trade policies.

Tariff escalation heightens recession fears: EMARKETER's forecasting team analyzes the economic disruption from Trump’s new trade policies.

Dollar Tree’s market share is growing as consumers across incomes prioritize value: The retailer sees strong prospects as it offloads Family Dollar and expands its multi-price assortment.

Dollar General’s core customer is under considerable financial strain: Many shoppers can only afford basic essentials as inflation and economic uncertainty take their toll.

Abercrombie & Fitch sees slowdown looming as tariffs take effect: The retailer expects sales growth and profits to be seriously pressured in 2025.

Target looks to add $15 billion in sales by 2030: However, 2025 is shaping up to be a tough year, as tariffs dampen discretionary demand and shoppers push back against its DEI policies.

The challenging retail environment is fuel for TJX: The off-price retailer sees greater opportunities to attract shoppers amid tariff threats and declining consumer confidence.

Our benchmarking report series provides critical data to help retailers calibrate their own retail and ecommerce sales against the wider market.

This deck provides critical data to help retailers benchmark their own retail sales against the wider market.

German ecommerce sales rose 1.1% last year: That’s the first growth in several years despite a tough economy and consumers’ overall gloominess.

Retailers ended 2024 on a high: Holiday ecommerce sales surged by nearly 9% YoY as steep discounts and tariff fears spurred spending.

UK retail sales grew 3.2% YoY in December: Even with a late surge, sales rose just 0.7% YoY in 2024.

China’s economy faces more gloom in 2025: Sluggish consumer spending and a potential trade war will weigh on growth.

Shoppers were willing and able to spend this holiday season: Even as consumers focused on value, sales rose 3.8% YoY from November 1 to December 24.

November retail sales surge past expectations: Shoppers shifted their spending up a gear amid a flurry of deals and concerns over tariff-related price hikes.

UK retailers face a challenging holiday season: The UK economy has grown in just one of the four months since Labour took power, exacerbating shopper gloom.

UK retail footfall declined in November as shoppers waited for Black Friday deals: Poor weather and subdued confidence also weighed on traffic, souring retailers’ holiday prospects.

GenAI and social are set to heavily influence the UK commerce and advertising landscape in 2025, while thrifty consumer behaviors persist and video viewing shifts to mostly digital.

A record number of people plan to shop over the Cyber Five: The NRF’s forecast dovetails with stronger-than-expected October sales, suggesting retailers have momentum heading into the holidays.