This Forecast Mapbook makes it easier to see how our retail and ecommerce sales forecasts relate to one another. It visualizes those relationships to remove ambiguity around overlapping metrics and related cuts of data.

UK ecommerce is entering a steady, mature phase—but there are still opportunities for growth.

US grocery ecommerce will continue to grow through 2029, but at a slower pace as the market matures and in-store sales remain dominant. As growth cools, delivery, retailer-owned channels, and a few larger players will lead the gains.

Digital grocery has evolved from a pandemic-era convenience to a core retail channel. More than 90% of US consumers now shop for groceries both online and in-store, according to FMI and NielsenIQ. As the channel matures, the competitive battleground shifts from basic fulfillment to AI-powered personalization, retail media monetization, and seamless omnichannel experiences. This FAQ addresses the trends, players, and strategies shaping digital grocery in 2026.

Retailers are prioritizing unified commerce solutions to help gain a complete picture of their business operations—including consumer behavior. As the tech landscape becomes more complex, key players are emerging across channels.

Retail foot traffic is bouncing back, especially in malls, thanks to diverse tenant mixes and engaging experiences that attract shoppers, Ethan Chernofsky, senior vice president of marketing at Placer.ai, said during a recent EMARKETER webinar. The pandemic’s lasting influence has also changed how we shop, with more people visiting multiple grocery stores for the best deals and quality, while small-format stores are helping retailers meet local needs.

Canada’s click-and-collect buyer growth tops our rankings among the countries we forecast. It’s a key option for consumers in Canada who prefer speedier order fulfillment and want to avoid home-delivery costs.

Ecommerce growth accelerated during the 2023 holiday season as US consumers shifted more of their shopping to mobile devices.

The future of ecommerce is grocery. Historically, three categories led the US ecommerce market: apparel and accessories, computer and consumer electronics, and furniture and home furnishings. But in recent years, growth has been fueled by essential goods, including food and beverage items, personal care products, and household supplies. This shift will take grocery to the top of the four major ecommerce categories by 2026.

As consumers look for quick and convenient ways to shop, the number of click-and-collect buyers in the US will rise to 150.9 million in 2024, representing 53.1% of the population, per our December 2022 forecast.

Amazon is on track for its first-ever $100 billion holiday season, boosted by its unbeatable delivery speeds, while click and collect gives Walmart an omnichannel edge, and Temu draws in price-conscious consumers. Plus, TikTok and mobile apps help retailers connect with consumers and stand out among the competition.

Most shoppers plan to reduce holiday spending this year: Cost concerns are driving consumers to start their holiday shopping early and look for deals.

Ulta expands in-store ecommerce fulfillment to 400 locations: Stores fulfilled nearly 40% of the retailer's digital orders.

Though growth is slowing, digital grocery will continue to fuel overall ecommerce growth in the US. “Growth is no longer driven by new adopters, but heavy digital grocery users,” our analyst Blake Droesch said on a recent “Reimagining Retail” podcast episode. Here’s how retailers like Instacart, Amazon, and Walmart can capitalize on frequent buyers.