The news: YouTube TV could lose access to Disney networks October 30, including ESPN, Disney Channel, and ABC, as Google and Disney enter a deal-renewal standoff.

• Disney claims that negotiations with Google are ongoing, but that Google is using its market power to force Disney into an unfair deal with below-market carriage fees.
• YouTube stated that it will offer subscribers a $20 credit if Disney networks are removed from its pay TV platform for “an extended period of time.”

Zooming out: This is one of many distribution disputes YouTube TV has been involved in recently.

• YouTube TV reached a renewal agreement with Fox Corp. in August after a public standoff that threatened YouTube TV’s access to key live sports properties.
• The pay TV platform reached an agreement with NBCUniversal earlier this month after a dispute between the companies. The disagreement stemmed from YouTube’s desire to offer all of NBCU’s Peacock content as part of a regular subscription that would not require users to exit YouTube TV to access Peacock.
• YouTube TV lost access to Univision in early October at the same time that it struck a precarious deal with NBCU. Losing Univision has stripped YouTube TV of a major Spanish-language broadcast offering, access to key audiences, and rights to sports offerings like Univision’s MLS Leagues Cup.

What it means for YouTube TV: No deal with Disney will cause YouTube TV to lose access to the company’s live sports offerings, which are powerful vehicles for YouTube TV to attract and retain subscribers. Losing access to Disney networks means YouTube TV customers can no longer watch ABC, ESPN, or marquee programming, which includes college football, NFL, NBA, and NHL seasons, a Disney spokesperson told Variety.

What it means for marketers: YouTube TV will become an increasingly risky investment for advertisers if a deal is not reached by the deadline, especially as advertisers turn to sports as a key channel to reach vast audiences but struggle with sports rights fragmentation.

• Looking to pay TV platforms with more stable sports offerings will provide a cushion amid uncertainty. Platforms like Prime Video that maintain long-term deals with key sports properties will ensure continued access to sports without as much risk.
• Brands should consider audience-based buying over platform-specific advertising. Instead of purchasing ad slots tied to a single offering, data-driven audience segments will cut across services to reach fans where they watch—critical as rights scatter.