The news: OpenAI anticipates $2.5 billion in ad revenues this year, Axios reports. The company estimates that this figure will skyrocket to $100 billion by 2030.

Investors have been told that ad revenues will increase to $11 billion in 2027, $25 billion in 2028, and $53 billion in 2029. This projection assumes OpenAI products will have 2.75 billion weekly users by 2030.

Zooming out: The news comes shortly after OpenAI claimed that its US ChatGPT ads pilot exceeded $100 million in annualized revenues six weeks after launching—and ahead of the company’s highly anticipated IPO, which could happen as early as Q4 2026.

The massive estimate indicates that OpenAI sees advertising as a core driver of business growth, and a key factor in offsetting the massive costs that have kept the company from achieving profitability.

The challenges: OpenAI’s anticipated ad revenues would put it on par with major competitors like Google by 2030—but the company could be underestimating the challenges that come with putting ads in AI responses.

Axios notes ads could undermine one of the main selling points of AI chatbots: That these services are built for users, not advertisers. User sentiment on ads in AI chatbots is already mixed.

• Ads in AI search results face consumer pushback: 63% of consumers agree that ads decrease trust in AI outputs, while only 24% disagree, per Ipsos.
• Other studies suggest ads won’t change consumers’ AI habits. A Forrester survey found that 83% of online adults would continue to use free tiers of answer engines even if ads were introduced; only 6% would switch to a paid, ad-free tier.
• Still, even the consumers who are most receptive to ads in AI chatbots could lose trust if ChatGPT ad loads are too high or if ads seem too personal and intrusive.