The news: Prescription drug prices fell 3.1% over the 12 months ending in July, the largest annual decline in more than six decades, according to the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

The Trump administration attributed the decline to deals with 17 drugmakers over the past year that include lower direct-to-consumer (D2C) drug prices on TrumpRx. But health economists pointed to Medicare drug price negotiations established under the Inflation Reduction Act as a more likely driver, with negotiated prices for the first 10 drugs taking effect in January 2026. They also cited growing generic competition and discounted self-pay prices for GLP-1 drugs via both direct sales and TrumpRx negotiations.

Why it matters: The aggregate decline in prescription drug prices hasn’t translated into broad affordability gains at the pharmacy counter.

• Some 43% of US adults didn’t take their medication as prescribed in the past 12 months because of cost, including 27% who skipped filling a prescription and 19% who skipped doses or cut pills in half, per a March KFF poll.
• And 59% now worry about affording prescription drug costs, the highest it's been since KFF began tracking that question in 2018.

Savings for prescription drugs remain concentrated among certain patients, such as seniors and those whose insurance doesn’t cover a needed drug available via TrumpRx. Prices for the first 10 drugs negotiated under the IRA fell 38% to 79% for the Medicare enrollees taking them. Meanwhile, TrumpRx, which intended to extend lower prices more broadly, remains limited. It includes only around 92 brand-name drugs, fewer than 12% of the 800-plus brand-name drugs made by participating pharma companies, per a July NPR analysis.

Implications for pharma companies: The CPI data gives the industry a credible government source showing prescription drug prices are declining, but one strong report is unlikely to change pharma’s reputation on affordability. With many patients still skipping refills or cutting pills because of cost, leaning into “prices are falling” messaging could ring hollow.

The data may be more useful in conversations with regulators and lawmakers where drugmakers can point to the decline as evidence of progress on pricing and argue that further price controls aren’t needed. With patients, savings are more tangible when tied to a specific drug and price. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, for example, are emphasizing lower cash-pay GLP-1 prices in their consumer messaging. Tying affordability messages to a specific product and price gives patients actionable information that could lower their out-of-pocket cost.