Key stat: US shoppers will spend $275.1 billion online this holiday season, up 6.7% from last year, according to a September report from Adobe.

Beyond the chart:

• Shoppers plan to keep spending, just on their own terms. Some 64% of Americans plan to spend as much as or more than they did last holiday season, according to PayPal.
• Meanwhile, AI is becoming the new holiday shopping assistant. Some 84% of Gen Zers and millennials will turn to AI to find deals, compare prices, and get gift ideas, compared with 51% of Gen Xers and boomers, according to Blackhawk Network.

Use this chart: Drop this into your holiday budget review to size the online opportunity before Black Friday. Use the $17.3 billion in new spend to defend late-season media dollars, and pair it with PayPal's deal-waiting data to time promotions when cautious shoppers finally commit.

Related EMARKETER reports:

• Holiday Shopping 2026 (EMARKETER subscription required)
• US Holiday Ecommerce Sales Benchmarks: Q2 2026 (EMARKETER subscription required)

Methodology: Data is from a September 2026 Adobe Analytics study as cited in press release. Data is based on an aggregated and anonymous data analysis of 1 trillion website visits and 100 million SKUs in 18 product categories sold online in the US. Adobe measures 80% of all online transactions from the top 100 US retailers. The data is based on the Fisher Ideal Price Index.