Key stat: Restaurant prices rose 3.4% YoY in July, while grocery prices rose 2.6%, a 0.8-point gap that's less than half what it was last winter, according to an August report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Beyond the chart:

• Diners are already noticing. Restaurant spending rose 3.3% YoY, and Gen Zers' restaurant spending jumped nearly 7%, according to Bank of America Institute card data.
• Meanwhile, some chains are turning grocery prices into a pitch. With steak prices up 16.3% YoY, LongHorn Steakhouse prices its beef well below grocery store levels and grew same-restaurant sales 7.2%, according to Darden.

Use this chart: Drop this into your 2027 planning deck to show that cooking at home is losing its price edge. Restaurant brands can use it to sharpen value messaging the way LongHorn does with steak. Grocers and CPG marketers should show it to teams counting on trade-down demand to keep growing.

Related EMARKETER reports:

• The Pulse of the Consumer: Food and Beverage Survey 2026 (EMARKETER subscription required)
• Generational Shopping Trends 2026 (EMARKETER subscription required)