The onset of the pandemic drove many consumers to adopt subscription ecommerce for essential items—like meal kits and pet food—as well as beauty and hobby boxes for self-care and entertainment. That dramatically propelled US subscription ecommerce sales growth in 2020 and 2021.

• US subscription ecommerce sales will grow by 15.0% year over year (YoY) in 2022, totaling $33.48 billion.
• Sales growth will remain steady through 2024, but subscriptions will account for just 3.2% of total retail ecommerce sales during that time.

Digital subscription buyers: Subscription fatigue may threaten long-term growth

Digital subscription buyer growth will slow to 3.3% this year, and hover around 3% through 2024.

• This means companies building subscription models will increasingly have to draw dollars from existing subscribers. As a result, we expect that the average spending per digital subscription buyer will be higher in 2022 than at any other point during the pandemic.
• The rising average spend per buyer will sustain sales growth in the short term, but subscription fatigue raises concerns. Consumers will eventually hit a ceiling with subscription spending, making long-term sales growth more difficult.

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