The news: A recent Bank of America study highlights the diverging fortunes of lower-income versus middle- and higher-income consumers. Wealthier segments are benefiting from rising asset prices and wages, while inflation and muted income growth is putting less well-off segments in a precarious position.

Megabanks’ Q3 results track: Consumer credit portfolios overall haven’t shown strain, and optimism abounds. But caution lights are flashing among subprime consumers, and asset prices could pull back at any time.

The strategies: Banks have doggedly pursued the mass-affluent and affluent segments, most recently leaning into the “premiumization” strategy, where they gate premium products and services with higher prices while expanding benefits. American Express, for example, raised its Platinum card annual fee by nearly 30% to $895 in September. And Chase is phasing in a $795 annual fee for its Sapphire Reserve card, up from $550.

Neobanks, meanwhile, are picking up the slack among lower-earning segments. Chime, which targets consumers with less than $100,000 per year in household income, reported 8.6 million active users in Q2 2025. It minimizes the risk of charge-offs by offering only a secured credit card or short-term loans derisked by requiring a direct deposit relationship.

Our take: Consumers’ overall resilience masks differences between income segments, which is important to strategic planning and risk management as banks anticipate macro risks. Higher-income segments are traditionally lower risk, even when they carry high balances—but with a sharp reversal in economic conditions, that could quickly change.

In a more challenging economic environment, neobanks like Chime stand to benefit. Their business model, which has much slimmer margins by design, has been weighed down by high marketing costs. But their downmarket focus and careful risk management position them to capture consumers in a downturn.