YouTube’s ad business took a hit in the latter half of 2022, with revenues down year over year in both Q3 and Q4. The company has since hired a new CEO, hiked YouTube TV prices, and introduced podcasts to YouTube Music to try to reverse the downward trend.

If TikTok gets banned (and it’s a very big “if”), advertisers need to know where consumers will go. Instagram and YouTube would be likely beneficiaries, but OTT TV like Netflix could also see gains. Advertisers may even branch out to other categories entirely, like retail media. Here are five charts showing what could happen.

Retail media will stay ahead of connected TV (CTV) in US ad spending and close in on traditional TV this year, according to our forecast. Search overall, including paid search on retail media networks, will reach $108.48 billion in 2023.

TikTok will see 11.6% global user growth this year, according to our forecast. That’s about double Snapchat’s and Instagram’s expected growth. The ByteDance-owned app will boast more than 900 million monthly users this year—if it manages to stay in the US, its biggest country.

Amid privacy changes and macroeconomic headwinds, social media will be the channel hurt most by the digital advertising downturn. For 2023, we have reduced our US social network ad spending forecast by $16.21 billion.

Search is already a major component of retail media; social is the next integration. Advertisers still view social media as a discovery medium and retail media as a conversion-driver. But both platforms are “potentially full-funnel,” according to Liz Cole, executive director and US head of social at VMLY&R, speaking at our “Attention!” summit.

US consumers spent $2.17 billion on social media apps in 2022, nearly half a billion more than the year before, according to data.ai. Worldwide, social app spend hit $7.28 billion last year, up from $6.32 billion in 2021.

Meta gained a strong hold over the US social media app rankings last year, with Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger, and Facebook all boasting the highest numbers of downloads, according to Apptopia. Messaging app Telegram broke into the top 10 this year, as did relative newcomer BeReal.

Meta’s vow of efficiency marks renewed optimism: Meta shares rally after analysts upgrade stock due to Meta’s new, leaner direction. Meanwhile, the company continues to spend billions on an unrealized metaverse pivot.

TikTok’s magic is no longer in its mystery. The illusion of TikTok content being personalized for users through an all-powerful algorithm is fading. Two weeks ago, Forbes reported TikTok’s use of a secret “heating” tool. But TikTok’s heating controversy doesn’t mean marketers should immediately retreat to Instagram Reels. Rather, they should think of TikTok and Reels as two different tools.

Nearly 80% of the world’s internet users are on social media. This landscape is still dominated by Meta in most markets, but use and ad spend is shifting away from Facebook and toward TikTok. Here are five charts capturing the worldwide state of social.

Facebook and YouTube will still be the top US social media platforms for buying ads or monetizing content this year, though their dominance is eroding, according to October 2022 polling by Integral Ad Science.

Instagram’s new Quiet mode offers an olive branch to parents and regulators as the Biden administration vows to go after Big Tech for “put[ting] our children at risk.” All social platforms can sense a new era of accountability, and they’re making active moves to stay on regulators’ good side.

Mobile app install ad spending is on the rise, and more video content on social media means an increase in time spent on platforms. Plus, click and collect remains a popular option for grocery buyers. Our forecasters laid out some good news for advertisers.

Retail media was the fastest-growing digital ad channel worldwidein Q3 2022, with retail media spend increasing 45% versus a year ago, according to Skai. It also gave advertisers more bang for their buck with impressions up 61% and costs per click down 12% year over year.

Startups put OpenAI’s Microsoft advantage to the test: OpenAI is becoming one of the US' most valuable startups over its sensational generative AI. Leadership in the space requires skillful monetization.

Content creation is changing as platforms share ad revenues with creators and all content becomes monetizable. “That’s going to send a wave of quick-hit, low-value content across social media as creators scramble to get more content out,” said our analyst Jasmine Enberg. Enberg predicts smaller creators will shift strategies as they try to earn more from their content.

It took more than a decade for search and social to gain wide market traction, but the timeframe is shortening. Marketers who are slow to embrace emerging platforms will find themselves left behind even faster than before.

Our analysts have already shared what they think will be the biggest trends of 2023, but we’re not done with the crystal ball just yet. From patchwork TV measurement to Meta cashing in on its messaging apps, our team revealed some thoughts on what’s to come in the year ahead.

Twitter’s turbulent takeover: The Twitter-Musk saga is one of the biggest stories for 2022 that will likely continue into 2023. It could strangle other Musk-owned businesses like Tesla, which Musk is using to sell stock to keep Twitter afloat.