The situation: The compounded GLP-1 market isn’t dying down as quickly as previously expected. Our take: Online healthcare companies are getting crafty with how they market and sell compounded GLP-1s. Novo and Lilly will keep experimenting with legal tactics to get copycat GLP-1s off the market, but their path to victory in court is unclear. Short of the FDA stepping in—and it doesn’t seem like it will—the battle of pharma vs. compounded weight loss drug sellers will get even messier.

The news: Medicare and Medicaid could cover GLP-1s for weight loss as part of a proposed five-year government experiment, according to a report in The Washington Post. Our take: The pilot, albeit not finalized, is a significant about-face from the Trump administration—particularly its top health official, Kennedy. It could be a signal that CMS Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz is behind the plan, since he’s a bigger proponent of the meds. Still, we’re dubious about how many health plans will commit considering GLP-1s' high costs are a top concern for most insurers.

The news: Novo Nordisk’s stock plunged over 20% on Tuesday after it cut full-year guidance, citing lower-than-expected sales growth for Wegovy, its blockbuster weight loss drug. Our take: Despite the recent slump, we think Novo is well positioned to rebound. It remains one of two dominant players in the weight loss drug space and is still posting profit growth, albeit below Wall Street expectations. With the US adult obesity rate expected to hit 50% by 2030, the market opportunity is huge. Meanwhile, regulators are likely going to make it more difficult for compounded drugs to be sold as long as brand-name forms stay off the FDA’s drug shortage list.

The news: Novo Nordisk is partnering with WeightWatchers to offer discounted Wegovy to cash-pay customers. Our take: WeightWatchers is recognizing that diet culture is being replaced by weight loss medications accessible via virtual care. To stand out from other Novo’s other telehealth partners, WeightWatchers should lean into marketing that positions the company as a pioneer weight loss brand that’s now meeting consumer demand for GLP-1s.

The news: A majority of GLP-1 weight loss drug consumers are now staying on the medications for more than a year, per an annual Prime Therapeutics analysis. The Prime study includes 5,780 people via healthcare claims over three years; the mean age was 47 and 80% were women. The final word: Adherence rates longer than a year validates the idea that prescription weight loss GLP-1s, and newer drugs on the way, are here to stay as chronic disease treatments. It shifts typical weight loss marketing from cyclical—keep your New Year’s resolution or lose weight for your wedding—to medical and consistent.

The news: Novo Nordisk is terminating its short-lived partnership with Hims & Hers. The drugmaker is accusing Hims of illegally selling knockoff versions of Wegovy, while deceptively marketing its compounded GLP-1 products. Our take: Hims will likely regret its refusal to cooperate with Novo and Eli Lilly, who have taken control of the D2C weight loss drug market.

The data: Around 2 in 5 employers and health plans will never consider covering GLP-1 drugs for obesity, according to a June 2025 report from Pharmaceutical Strategies Group. Our take: We don’t think a lack of insurance coverage for GLP-1s will lead to a market slowdown. Less generous insurance coverage of the drugs will force companies operating in the competitive cash-pay GLP-1 space to continue offering temporary discounts or lower their prices altogether.

The news: Eli Lilly said it won’t partner with telehealth companies that sell compounded weight loss drugs. Our take: Lilly’s demand may signal that it’s in a better position in the weight loss drug market than Novo to play hardball with industry partners such as Hims & Hers.

Hims & Hers expands in Europe via telehealth acquisition: Hims purchased a company with a similar business model overseas. We believe it’s a sign that Hims is losing its competitive advantage in the US weight loss drug space.

Novo Nordisk’s CEO steps down: Investor panic and a slumping stock may have been driving factors. Despite falling behind Eli Lilly in the weight loss drug market, recent moves around oral GLP-1 development put Novo in a strong position.

At-home injectable drugs have been getting more approvals: Amneal Pharmaceuticals is the latest to gain approval for its migraine treatment. Pharma companies can help spur uptake for at-home injectables like it with more education and support.

Hims & Hers pushes for partnership with Eli Lilly to sell discounted Zepbound: Hims recently inked a similar deal with Novo, and we think the market opportunity is too big for Lilly to pass up.

Eli Lilly sues telehealth companies over compounded weight loss drugs: Lilly is leaving no stone unturned when it comes to building a legal case to prevent compounded tirzepatide from being prescribed and sold.

Lilly notches another win in oral GLP-1 drugs: Eli Lilly’s phase 3 success could put it in a commanding position in diabetes and weight loss if the easy-to-take—and cheaper to manufacture—drug is approved.

Medicare and Medicaid won’t have to cover GLP-1s for weight loss: The Trump administration rejected a proposal that would have improved access to the drugs for millions of Americans. The consequences will be greater for patients than for Big Pharma.

Hims to offer brand-name GLP-1s despite snub from Eli Lilly: Hims appears to have burned bridges with the two biggest GLP-1 drugmakers and consequently could lose customers to rivals selling weight loss drugs at a discount.

AbbVie shakes up obesity market: AbbVie’s entrance to the weight loss drug market could create more competition between Big Pharma with a vote of confidence in a GLP-1 alternative.

Pharma giants report mixed earnings for GLP-1s in Q4: Supply challenges and weight loss drug market competition could pose the biggest threats to Novo and Lilly in 2025.

CMS unveils list of drugs for the next round of Medicare price negotiations: Drugmakers’ efforts to win over the Trump administration could amend the process in their favor—up to a certain point.

Pharma is forecast for positive momentum in 2025: But increases in drug approvals and product sales are no guarantee as the US transitions to a new administration.