Nearly three-quarters of US TikTok users will also use Instagram this year, making it the most popular alternative to the social video app, per our forecast. That’s good news for Instagram Reels, which is positioning itself as a viable successor in the event of a US TikTok ban.

In 2023, 58.5% of Meta’s $121.90 billion of ad revenues worldwide will come from Facebook, per our forecast. The remaining 41.5% will come from Instagram, whose ad revenues are growing faster than Facebook’s, which will decline in 2022. For the next two years, Instagram will continue to outpace Facebook by this measure.

For many, Facebook’s new name introduced “the metaverse” as a concept. But a year out, most people have not entered the metaverse. Right now, Meta’s facelift doesn’t appear to have legs. (Quite literally—the little Horizon Worlds avatars still don’t have legs.)

This year, US adults will spend 25.7% of their social media time on Facebook, down 9.6 percentage points from 2019. As Facebook’s share drops, TikTok’s will continue to grow. US adults will devote 16.7% of their social time to TikTok this year, up 12.2 percentage points from 2019.

While Instagram giveth, Facebook taketh away. The Meta-owned platforms face diverging futures. Instagram's US user base will increase by 4.0% this year to 128.3 million, while Facebook's will decline by 0.8% to 178.3 million.

US TikTok users will spend more time with the social media platform this year than YouTube users will spend on YouTube. This difference will be just about a fraction of a minute but will expand in years to come.

Meta released its Q1 2022 earnings, revealing the company's slowest revenue growth since going public, for a total of $27.91 billion. Daily active users bounced back by 30 million users to 1.96 billion, following the platform’s first-ever drop in Q4 2021.

TikTok and Instagram were once again the top US social networking apps of 2021, downloaded 94.0 million and 64.0 million times that year, respectively. Snapchat took third place with a 10% jump in downloads, leapfrogging Facebook, whose downloads fell by 11%.