The unprecedented social and economic disruptions that affected all areas of life in the US in 2020 also skewed many of our pre-pandemic forecasts. Valuable insights can be gleaned by examining the difference between what we thought would happen as of February 2020 versus what we now project for this year and the coming years.

The retail industry is transforming at both physical stores and in digital. This report examines 10 trends that will most shape retail in the year ahead.

The COVID-19 outbreak undermined many of our pre-pandemic US forecasts. Insight can now be gleaned by examining the difference between what we thought would happen as of February 2020 vs. what our forecasts now show.

Digital retail will have a huge impact on UK shopper trends in the coming holiday season. This year, ecommerce will account for nearly a third of all holiday spending, its largest share to date. Brick-and- mortar shopping, meanwhile, remains on the precipice.

This will be a tough year for holiday season retail in the UK. Shoppers will spend less in 2020, and much of their spend will fall outside the traditional November–December time frame, leading to the lowest holiday retail sales total since 2015.

Despite what should be historic headwinds, we are projecting marginally positive holiday season growth rates amid unprecedented channel-shifting behavior. In short, ecommerce’s impressive showing this year will make up for a sizable deficit at brick-and-mortar retail.

The 2020 US holiday season, set amid the backdrop of a pandemic-driven consumer economy, will see an unprecedented shift to ecommerce.

Footwear retailer Payless, which filed for bankruptcy last year, is relaunching its brand with a new ecommerce site and brick-and-mortar ambitions.

Many consumers’ shopping behaviors have moved online in recent months, and that trend is likely to continue through the holiday shopping season.

Since its launch in 2017, Peace Out Skincare—known for its Acne Dot patches—has been rapidly expanding its business through an exclusive partnership with Sephora, as well as its own direct-to-consumer (D2C) business.

It’s long been understood that US retail is over-stored. The US has more retail space per capita than any other country in the world, according to a 2018 analysis by Cowen and Company, at about 23.5 square feet per person compared to Canada, which is second on the list at 16.8 square feet.

As lockdowns slowly lift in the US, retailers face a changed shopping landscape. With lingering fears over renewed outbreaks, many consumers are wary of returning to stores.

The coronavirus pandemic has been disastrous for the vast majority of Europe’s retailers. Digital retail has benefitted, though. In Germany, we expect retail ecommerce sales to rise 16.2% this year, and total $92.33 billion.

The effects of the coronavirus pandemic are turbocharging digital transformation in China's retail sector—and the country is already leading the world in terms of retail ecommerce sales and penetration.

Direct-to-consumer (D2C) brand Cuts Clothing has grown a lot since it first launched in 2016 on Kickstarter. “Since day one, we have been focused on making premium minimalist shirts for the modern man,” said Steven Borrelli, CEO and co-founder of Cuts.

Due to the pandemic, retailers are currently struggling with finances, logistics and maintaining relevance. With stay-at-home orders still in place indefinitely, many companies are wondering when they can get back to business as usual.

With the impact of the coronavirus still ricocheting throughout the economy, it can be difficult to envision retail one day returning to normal. And yet, somehow it will—and much of it will look virtually indistinguishable from the pre-crisis reality. But certain changes in consumer behavior will be lasting.

In a signal that it has flattened the curve, China reported zero new domestically transmitted cases of COVID-19 in the mainland last month, though that may slightly change as there have been cases brought back by overseas returnees. (Additionally, there is some speculation around the accuracy of these reports.) Editors Note: Since this article's original publication, one county in China has gone into total lockdown again amid fear of a second wave of COVID-19 cases.

The 2019 holiday season capped a tough year for physical retailers in the UK, with brick-and-mortar sales down for the second year running. However, strong gains in retail ecommerce sales meant that overall, retail sales saw growth during the season.

Retailers are well aware of consumers' desire to shop in the most effortless ways possible, but several in-store pain points continue to hinder such experiences, according to an October 2019 survey from Capgemini.