China’s Q4 spending reinforced platform consolidation, as advertisers concentrated budgets on large platforms with data, scale, and commerce integration.

Baidu posted its sharpest revenue decline on record, with ad revenues falling 18% as AI-generated answers replace traditional search clicks. Ernie Bot now powers responses on most Baidu queries, improving user experience but suppressing monetizable activity—a trend management says will weigh on results into Q4. Competitors like Tencent, ByteDance, and PDD are still growing 20% to 30% YoY, suggesting Baidu’s weakness is structural. While the US market is more diversified, Baidu offers a stress test: AI can reshape search faster than monetization evolves. For advertisers, it’s a reminder that even Google and Microsoft must balance innovation with economic stability.

Global ad spending has steadied after a turbulent year, setting the stage for modest acceleration in 2026. Digital is still the main engine, but traditional media’s rebound will add lift as markets stabilize.

Asia-Pacific ad spending growth will decelerate in 2025 amid tariff pressures, with digital and mobile driving growth. China faces headwinds, India enjoys rapid growth, and retail media expands and reshapes ad strategies across the region.

The news: Nvidia is facing a new obstacle in its ability to sell chips to China—Chinese authorities are urging ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent, and others to halt purchases of Nvidia hardware. This follows an agreement between President Donald Trump, Nvidia, and AMD that requires the two companies give the US government a 15% cut of Chinese chip revenues in exchange for permission to sell hardware there, per Bloomberg. Our take: ability to develop and deploy AI models for things like algorithm recommendations, content moderation, and generative AI (genAI) features. Marketers should diversify their AI-powered marketing tools to stay ahead if TikTok’s ad products and UX features develop more slowly.

Digital’s rapid adoption in recent years has made it the dominant medium with which people spend time in China, Japan, and South Korea, with consumption booming in India.

Digital’s share of total media ad spending in Asia-Pacific will reach a milestone in 2025, surpassing $200 billion for the first time. The region’s digital ad spending will increase 8.6%, led by India, while China’s growth will slip noticeably amid the country’s economic struggles before a rebound the following year.

A series of major milestones are on tap for total media and digital media ad spending around the world in 2025, although growth will be uneven across countries and regions.

OTT video is popular whether it’s free or paid. Every global region and country we track is engaged with these platforms, some very deeply. But new viewers will be hard to find.

From the rise of sophisticated AI-driven tools to new policies reshaping data privacy and competition, 2025 promises to be a year of relentless change. Companies that adapt will thrive, while others risk being left behind in a swiftly moving market.

How time spent with media, device ownership, and media adoption stack up in China.

The fintech’s push is part of a larger trend of US payment firms looking to capitalize on the massive growth opportunity in China

Like many other payment providers globally, Alibaba is opening up its walled garden to fight off antitrust scrutiny

Despite a slow start, foreign sanctions, and tight digital regulations, generative AI is emerging as a significant force in China.

As China’s retail media advertising market begins to mature, off-site channels—including WeChat and Douyin, TikTok's sister app in China—will increasingly drive growth.

Digital, traditional, and total media ad spending growth will all accelerate in 2024, although only modestly. The outlook has stabilized for most countries and regions, even if spectacular growth is harder than ever to find.

The ad spending winter of 2022 and early 2023 was mild and short-lived, as we predicted. And after a solid H2 2023, things are looking up across the board for 2024.