As the realities of Brexit finally hit, will the purse strings tighten?

Strong growth in online sales over the 2019 holiday season propelled the UK retail sector past a milestone. Ecommerce represented 28.2% of all holiday retail sales, surpassing the 25% mark for the first time. Total retail sales for the season amounted to £99.26 billion ($132.33 billion).

Three and a half years ago, the UK voted to leave the EU. The country then plunged into a deep depression, cities were razed and the ad industry collapsed into a heap of self-loathing—actually, maybe not. While things are not great, they’re not as bad as some feared.

Growth in total ad spending in the UK continues to slow, weighed down by the uncertainty of Brexit dragging into the 2019 holiday season and unfavorable comparisons to 2018 total ad spend, which got a bump because of the World Cup.

As the eurozone faces economic turmoil due to global trade tensions and the continuing threat of Brexit, France and Germany are faring slightly differently where ad spend is concerned. Per our estimates, total ad spending in France is growing at slightly higher rates than in Germany, which lurches closer to an economic recession.

Despite broad economic uncertainty fueled by Brexit and reduced digital ad spending across multiple industries in the UK, Facebook and Google’s shares of the digital ad market in the region continues to grow.

eMarketer forecasting director Shelleen Shum explains why we lowered our forecast for total and digital ad spend in the UK again.

eMarketer junior forecasting analyst Nazmul Islam shares our total media ad spending outlook for Germany and what’s behind traditional’s sluggish growth.

eMarketer senior forecasting analyst Oscar Orozco explores our digital ad spend numbers for Google and Facebook amid an economic slowdown in the EU.

eMarketer forecasting director Shelleen Shum talks about Brexit and its impact on digital ad spending for the Google-Facebook duopoly in the UK.

eMarketer junior forecasting analyst Nazmul Islam discusses our recently adjusted ad spending figures for Europe and the potential hit digital spend may take.

Lingering uncertainty over Brexit has had an impact on all industries across the British economy, but the automotive sector has been hit particularly hard, which has affected how much it can spend on digital ads.

eMarketer forecasting director Shelleen Shum compares our estimates for brick-and-mortar and ecommerce sales for Western European markets amid an economic slowdown.

The consumer packaged goods (CPG) industry in the UK has to deal with not only Brexit effects, but also strong competition from retailers’ own-label products. As such, we predict that this industry will see a diminishing share of the digital ad spend market through 2020.

Boris Johnson, who was sworn in as the new British prime minister last week, declared early on that the UK will leave the EU by October 31. The divisive topic has already claimed two prime ministers and on the surface, there’s a tone of certainty about Johnson’s plans: He has filled his cabinet with Brexiteers, and he’s adamant that a no-deal Brexit will be the default option for “Brexit Day v2” should negotiations with the EU come to nothing.

Digital ad spending will total £14.73 billion ($19.64 billion) in the UK in 2019. For such a digitally advanced country, it’s no surprise to see every industry investing in digital channels, leading to an even spread of spend.

Brexit and its aftermath are very much top of mind for UK companies this year. Retail is feeling the uncertainty as consumers remain circumspect about their discretionary spending and retailers face increasingly tighter margins.

Retail sales in the UK are slowing as Brexit concerns bite. However, ecommerce growth remains robust, underpinned by smartphone shopping and buying. The future of retail, however, is omnichannel.

In today's "eMarketer Daily Forecast" video, senior forecasting analyst Chris Bendtsen breaks down the impact of Brexit on the Google-Facebook duopoly. Watch now.

Advertisers continue to spend on digital formats in the UK, to the detriment of some traditional channels. Brexit is accentuating this trend, with the Google-Facebook duopoly proving to be the biggest winner.