TikTok remains resilient, but YouTube is rising

March 13, 2025 (New York, NY) – Influencer marketing spending will surpass $10 billion in the US in 2025, one year earlier than we previously predicted, according to Emarketer’s latest influencer forecast. While brand engagement remains strong on TikTok, its position is precarious due to the uncertainty surrounding its US operations.

We define influencer marketing spending as revenues generated by US-based creators from payments made by brands to promote products on social media and video platforms that primarily host user-generated content (e.g. YouTube, Twitch). It excludes paid media and non-social channels. Our forecast also assumes TikTok will remain in the US in 2025 and beyond without a major change to its operations.

US influencer marketing spending will surpass $10 billion in 2025.  We previously expected spending to reach the $10 billion mark in 2026. Last year, brands fully committed to influencer marketing. We now estimate that influencer marketing spending rose by 23.7%, which is an upgrade from our previous 2024 growth forecast of 16.0%. In 2025, another $1.37 billion dollars will be added to the market, pushing spending to $10.52 billion.

“Influencer marketing is maturing and diversifying,” said Jasmine Enberg, VP and principal analyst at Emarketer. “The boom days of spending growth on social media sponsored content are largely over, but brands are directing more of their influencer budgets to paid social ads and non-social channels, from TV to digital out-of-home to podcasts, which is funneling more money into the tactic.”

But spending growth will slow to 15.0% in 2025, due to several factors, including the market maturing, the turmoil at TikTok, and economic uncertainty. In 2025, we expect influencer marketing spending growth on TikTok to slow to 17.0%. That’s roughly on par with the growth rates for Instagram and YouTube, both of which attract over $1 billion more in influencer marketing spending.

“Most brands are taking a wait-and-see approach to TikTok and the escalating trade wars,” Enberg said. “But the turmoil around TikTok’s future, as well as the on-again, off-again tariffs, are causing uncertainty and putting some pressure on influencer budgets. That pressure is likely to be relieved once brands gain more clarity on how these challenges will impact their businesses and have had some time to adapt.”

Any spending disruptions in 2025 will likely be temporary. We expect influencer marketing spending growth to tick up slightly to 15.7% in 2026.

TIKTOK REMAINS RESILIENT, BUT CRACKS ARE FORMING

While engagement trends on TikTok remain strong, there has been a shift in perception among many brands, creators and consumers. 

“Fewer marketers are thinking TikTok-first,” Enberg said. “They’re hesitant to sign on TikTok-only creators in case the platform goes dark again. Creators are actively building their communities on other platforms, including those where they feel they have more control over their audiences, content and monetization opportunities.”

Other social platforms are also courting TikTok creators, which will lead to further diversification in influencer marketing platforms. Instagram and YouTube will benefit the most. In 2025, for the first time, we expect over half of US marketers to use influencer marketing on YouTube.

“Influencer marketing is bigger than TikTok,” Enberg said. “Even prior to TikTok’s troubles, the conversation was growing around YouTube. As brands and creators prioritize more predictable content, longer-term relationships, and storytelling over trends and ad-hoc sponsorships, YouTube is quickly becoming the place to be for brands and creators.”