Retail returns have quietly become one of the most expensive, complex, and customer-sensitive parts of commerce.

As ecommerce grows, returns are rising, putting pressure on margins, operations, and customer loyalty at the same time.

• Total US retail physical and ecommerce return volume will be $876.69 billion in 2026, a growth of 2.9%, according to EMARKETER's December 2025 forecast.
• We forecast that nearly half of US digital buyers (49.2%) will be ecommerce returners this year.

What was once treated as a back-office necessity is now a frontline test of how well retailers balance cost control, fraud prevention, and customer experience.

Margin pressure rises

Returns are growing fast, and they’re expensive.

Global retail refund volumes increased 18.1% in 2025, while refund value rose 12.7% YoY, according to ACI Worldwide’s "Global Ecommerce Report."

The holiday season dominated refund activity, with November and December accounting for roughly 20% of all refunds, per ACI Worldwide.

While ecommerce transaction volumes grew, the financial impact of returns remains disproportionate, eating deeply into margins. Every $1 million in refunds adds up to roughly $1.3 million in total costs, considering logistics, inventory depreciation, processing fees, and fraud overhead, according to ACI.

Even as shoppers spent more selectively and average selling prices increased, willingness to reverse purchase decisions remained high, intensifying pressure on reverse logistics as margins tighten.

For retailers, the takeaway is that returns are no longer a trailing indicator of demand. They are a structural cost that scales with growth.

A loyalty flashpoint

Returns are also one of the most fragile moments in the customer journey.

Over half (55%) of US consumers have already made or plan to make a return following 2025's holiday season and 21% say they return items more than once a month, according to January data from Ada. Despite their frequency, satisfaction is thin: Only 36% of consumers say they are “very satisfied” with the returns process.

• For over 4 in 10 consumers (42%), the most common friction point is unexpected return fees, according to Ada. Other challenges include shipping inconveniences (41%) and unclear return policies (32%).

Those issues carry real risk. Some 57% of consumers say a poor returns experience would impact their likelihood of purchasing from that brand again, regardless of prior loyalty, according to Ada's data.

Speed and effort matter most. Self-service is already the preferred return channel for 31% of shoppers, and interest in automation is growing, per Ada. While only 12% currently prefer chatbots, 60% say they would use an AI agent if it could instantly answer questions and process a return .

Returns have moved from operational to reputational.

A push to rethink returns

Rising return volumes are also fueling fraud.

Some 15% of all returns are fraudulent, according to a January report from LiquiDonate. Over a third of consumers admit to committing at least one form of return-related fraud and 85% of retailers say they have experienced return-related fraud, per LiquiDonate.

At the same time, AI is increasingly being deployed to manage the post-purchase loop. Retailers are increasingly applying real-time analytics and AI-driven controls that were originally built for fraud prevention to monitor refunds and returns, aiming to reduce abuse without adding friction for legitimate customers, according to ACI's report.

“The sharp rise in refund volumes is exposing a growing pressure point for retailers—one that directly threatens margins,” said Adriana Iordan, head of merchant product management and payments intelligence at ACI Worldwide, in the report. “Retailers need smarter, AI‑driven controls that spot abuse in real time and adapt policies dynamically, without adding friction for genuine customers.”

Retailers can no longer afford to treat returns as an afterthought. As volumes grow, customer tolerance for friction shrinks, and fraud becomes more sophisticated, returns are emerging as a defining battleground, one that will increasingly separate margin-protected, loyalty-driven retailers from the rest.

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