December 5, 2022 (New York, NY) – Based on updates to our US Digital Ad spending numbers, our forecast for programmatic ad spend has decreased. We now expect programmatic ad spend to grow 11% to a total of $127.34 billion in 2022, down from the 22% growth expected in Q2.

Programmatic direct as a percentage of total programmatic is expected to continue growing, hitting 75% by 2024. RTB technology is expanding but for the foreseeable future we expect programmatic guaranteed to continue taking share year-over-year.  Programmatic direct advertisers are continuing to shift away from the open exchange towards PMP due to several perceived advantages:

• Preservation of buyer-seller relationships. In open auction transactions, anyone can sell or purchase ad inventory without either side knowing who’s on the other end. In PMPs, buyers and sellers can more easily work in tandem to achieve desirable outcomes.
• Inventory quality assurance. Publishers often package premium inventory for select advertisers through PMPs
• Protection against ad fraud. By associating with trusted partners in a private setting, advertisers can more easily hold publishers accountable and advocate for stricter protocols.
• Insulation from brand safety risks. This benefits both advertisers and publishers.”

CONNECTED TV

In 2022, we expect CTV programmatic display advertising to overtake Desktop/Laptop. CTV advertising in general has shown strong growth through the previous years, as Americans are spending more time consuming OTT content via connected TVs.  The launch of new ad-supported tiers on OTT platforms such as Netflix, Disney+, and Paramount+ will assist in generating more advertising revenue and helping CTV grow in the overall programmatic digital display marketplace.

“While RTB is gaining traction among CTV ad buyers, most CTV inventory outside of YouTube is still purchased directly from major streaming platforms, either via old-school insertion orders or programmatic direct,” said Evelyn Mitchell, analyst at Insider Intelligence. “To ensure the future growth of programmatic CTV, ad tech companies that sell CTV inventory on the open exchange need to need to make progress in quality assurance and measurement.”

WALLED GARDENS

Programmatic ad spend across walled gardens is expected to grow 11.7% in 2022 to $91.33 billion, down from the previous 2022 forecast of $99.43 billion. The expected decrease is due to a downturn in total ad spending on the major digital platforms, such as Meta, Amazon, Google, Snap, etc..

“The current programmatic ad space is attempting to innovate away from walled gardens via ad tech companies to give more control of the space to the open internet,” said Andrew Spink, forecasting analyst at Insider Intelligence. “However, for the foreseeable future we don’t expect the ad tech companies to catch up fast enough and expect that the market share of walled gardens will continue to increase to $122.29B making up 72.% of total programmatic ad spend.”

Methodology

Insider Intelligence forecasts and estimates are based on our proprietary analysis, and include both quantitative and qualitative data curated from public companies, government agencies, research and media firms, and interviews with expert executives in relevant fields. We regularly re-evaluate available data to ensure our forecasts reflect the latest business and economic  developments and trends.

About Insider Intelligence

Insider Intelligence is a leading research provider focused on digital transformation. We empower professionals with actionable data, insights, and analysis to make informed decisions in a digital world. Formed as a merger of eMarketer and Business Insider Intelligence in 2020, we produce nearly 200 forecasts, 300 reports, 7,000 charts, and 1,500 newsletters across the Advertising, Media, and Marketing; Financial Services; Healthcare; and Retail and Ecommerce industries. Insider Intelligence is a division of Axel Springer S.E.